Match Info

Super League - Relegation Group - Round 8

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Panetolikos Stadium (Agrinio)

Referee: Tsakalidis A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1


	Panetolikos		AEL Larissa

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	3	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.46	3.05	3.1
	2.6	2.99	3.08
	2.41	2.92	3.26	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.39	2.99	3.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.09)	3.01 ↓ (3.3)	3.13 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panetolikos
38.8%

Draw
31.2%

AEL Larissa
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.3%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

24.1%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panetolikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Panetolikos's form might have worsened.

AEL Larissa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panetolikos than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	29.4%	11.8%

Panetolikos - AEL Larissa Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Panetolikos will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Larissa will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Panetolikos: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Panetolikos (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kucherenko Y. (G) 35. Mavrias Ch. 28. Kojic L. 16. Sielis C. 15. Manrique C. 70. Lenny Lobato 22. Esteban Diego 41. Bouchalakis A. (C) 19. Farley Rosa 10. Matan A. 25. Badji Y.	21. Venetikidis T. (G) 27. Macon Y. 33. Rosic L. 28. Batubinsika D. 31. Atanasov J. 22. Papageorgiou A. 25. Sagal A. 15. Naor G. 8. Perez F. 29. Tupta L. 19. Pasas G. (C)
Substitutes
9. Aguirre J. 14. Aleksic K. 65. Apostolopoulos A. 30. Bregou A. 31. Garcia J. 2. Granath G. 71. Michalak K. 5. Mladen S. 77. Nikolaou E. 18. Satsias G. 7. Smyrlis L. 12. Zivkovic Z. (G)	10. Andrada L. 18. Chatzistravos Z. 17. Diminikos D. 14. Ferigra E. 23. Garate L. 4. Iliadis T. 5. Kakuta G. 1. Melissas N. (G) 7. Ngoy J. 20. Olafsson D. 6. Pantelakis E. 26. Staikos P.
Coaches
Anastasiou G.	Festa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Perez F. ↓, Olafsson D. ↑,
52', Badji Y. 🟨,
58', 0 - 1, Tupta L. ⚽, Sagal A. (A),
63', Pasas G. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
68', Lenny Lobato ↓, Smyrlis L. ↑,
68', Mavrias Ch. ↓, Satsias G. ↑,
68', Badji Y. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
77', Farley Rosa ↓, Aleksic K. ↑,
77', Esteban Diego ↓, Aguirre J. ↑,
78', Macon Y. ↓, Ferigra E. ↑,
78', Sagal A. ↓, Chatzistravos Z. ↑,
90+4', Tupta L. ↓, Iliadis T. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Garcia J. ⚽, Satsias G. (A),
90+6', Bouchalakis A. 🟨,
90+6', Atanasov J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Panetolikos won 4.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Panetolikos could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Panetolikos: Garcia U. (Inactive)

There will not play in Larissa: Apostolakis K. (Injury) Kossonou A. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Panetolikos won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:19. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Panetolikos won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 2.4:1).

Outrights of Greek Super League for now

Panetolikos: 0.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Panetolikos	5	3	0	2	8:7	1	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panetolikos
Greek Super League
09.05.26	Atromitos Athens - Panetolikos	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Panetolikos - AE Kifisia	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	AE Kifisia - Panetolikos	0:0 ✺
22.04.26	Asteras Tripolis - Panetolikos	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Panetolikos - Panserraikos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLTLL
- AEL Larissa
Greek Super League
09.05.26	AEL Larissa - Asteras Tripolis	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Panserraikos - AEL Larissa	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	AEL Larissa - Panserraikos	0:1 ✺
22.04.26	AEL Larissa - AE Kifisia	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Atromitos Athens - AEL Larissa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
08.04.26	AEL Larissa - Panetolikos	1:2
07.02.26	AEL Larissa - Panetolikos	1:4
08.11.25	Panetolikos - AEL Larissa	3:0
Club Friendly
01.08.25	AEL Larissa - Panetolikos	0:1
Greek Super League
03.04.21	AEL Larissa - Panetolikos	1:1
28.02.21	AEL Larissa - Panetolikos	1:0
07.12.20	Panetolikos - AEL Larissa	2:1

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