Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Derio		Zarautz KE

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.5	4.95
	2.09	2.52	4.88	Watch
	1.67	3.1	5
	1.71	3.42	5.18
	1.64	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.73)	3.19 ↓ (3.45)	5 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Derio
52.8%

Draw
28.8%

Zarautz KE
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

26.5%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

22.9%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Derio have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Zarautz KE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zarautz KE than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zarautz KE could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Derio - Zarautz KE Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
35', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 15).

Derio has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Zarautz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Derio is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Touring KE - Derio	5:2 ✺
20.12.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Derio - Leioa	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Eibar C - Derio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTWT
- Zarautz KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Zarautz KE - Zamudio	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Zarautz KE - Touring KE	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Santurtzi - Zarautz KE	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Zarautz KE - Alavés C	0:3 ✺
23.11.25	Real Sociedad C - Zarautz KE	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL

Upcoming Matches