Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 3

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol


	Patriotas		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2	Watch
	3.65	3.05	2.05	Watch
	3.94	3.16	2.08
	3.68	3.17	2.09	Watch
	3.4	3	2.05
	4.14	3.13	1.97	Watch
	4.45	3.5	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↓ (4.45)	3.17 ↓ (3.5)	2 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patriotas
24.1%

Draw
29.3%

Millonarios
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

26.4%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

25.9%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Millonarios might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Millonarios could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Patriotas - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: Millonarios will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Campana J. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, Hurtado J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
67', 2 - 1, Alvarez K. ⚽,
88', 2 - 2, Hurtado J. ⚽,
90+4', 2 - 3, Contreras R. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patriotas won 1.

Recent performances by Patriotas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Millonarios is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Patriotas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Millonarios will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Patriotas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 9:37. (average 0.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Patriotas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:20. (average 0.9:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 52.82%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patriotas FC
Colombian Copa
11.05.26	Atlético Cali - Patriotas	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Patriotas - Boyacá Chicó	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera B
18.04.26	Envigado - Patriotas	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Patriotas - Real Cartagena	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Patriotas - Leones	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TTLWW
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Copa
11.05.26	Millonarios - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Boston River - Millonarios	2:4 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
01.09.24	Millonarios - Patriotas	3:0
24.02.24	Patriotas - Millonarios	1:0
16.10.22	Millonarios - Patriotas	0:0
01.05.22	Patriotas - Millonarios	1:2
06.09.21	Millonarios - Patriotas	1:0
13.03.21	Patriotas - Millonarios	0:2
04.12.20	Patriotas - Millonarios	2:3

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