Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 19

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Paysandu		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	2.38	3	3.1	Watch
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.42	2.98	3
	2.42	3.15	3.24
	2.46	2.91	3.13	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3.3
	2.32	3.02	3.25	Watch
	2	3.35	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.79)	3.04 ↓ (3.5)	3.2 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
40.1%

Draw
30.7%

Athletic Club
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

26.4%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

25.6%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Club's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Club, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	60%	13.3%

Paysandu - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Athletic (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Paysandu (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Paysandu (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 3 - 30%). Athletic (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 21. Bryan Borges 6. Thalisson 35. Mauricio Antonio 16. Reverson 29. Anderson Leite 25. Ronaldo Henrique (C) 20. Denner 11. Marlon Douglas 9. Diogo Oliveira 10. Mauricio Garcez	31. Adriel (G) 2. Douglas Pele 4. Sidimar (C) 43. Marcelo Ajul 84. Rodrigo Gelado 14. Fabricio Isidoro 38. Sandry 10. David Braga 7. Welinton Torrao 21. Tavares R. 77. Max
Substitutes
8. Andre Lima 92. Benitez J. 2. Edilson 30. Marcelinho 13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 94. Patric Calmon 19. Petterson Novaes 3. Quintana Y. 27. Ramon Martinez 44. Thiago Heleno 99. Vinicius Faria	27. Alason Carioca 44. Alex Nascimento 11. Ezequiel 25. Glauco (G) 1. Jefferson Luis (G) 13. Jhonatan Silva 33. Leo Dourado 55. Martinez F. 96. Matheus Guilherme 19. Neto Costa 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Duarte R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', Welinton Torrao 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Welinton Torrao ⚽, Marcelo Ajul (A),
26', 1 - 1, Rodrigo Gelado (Own goal),
29', Bryan Borges 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bryan Borges ↓, Edilson ↑,
49', Ronaldo Henrique 🟨,
58', Fabricio Isidoro 🟨,
62', Max ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
71', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
72', Marlon Douglas ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
77', Welinton Torrao ↓, Ezequiel ↑,
78', Anderson Leite ↓, Ramon Martinez ↑,
79', Denner ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
87', David Braga ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
88', Fabricio Isidoro ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
89', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
90', Vinicius Faria 🟨,
90+2', Neto Costa 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 14).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Paysandu might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela (Yellow Cards) Novillo J. (Red Card) Rossi (Inactive)

There will not play in Athletic: Edson Miranda (Inactive) Lincoln (Inactive)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Edinho (Knee Injury) Luan Freitas (Inactive) Quintana Y. (Injury) Thiago Heleno (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Da Cruz A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.25	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Coritiba - Paysandu	2:5 ✺
12.07.25	Paysandu - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Avaí - Paysandu	0:0 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 TWTTW
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.25	Athletic Club - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
14.07.25	Athletic Club - Avaí	4:0 ✺
07.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Athletic Club - Remo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TWWWL

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