Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 30

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: de Almeida Andrade E. R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Paysandu		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.82	3	2.55	Watch
	2.78	2.92	2.62
	2.95	3.05	2.7
	3.12	2.99	2.41	Watch
	2.98	2.99	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.4)	2.99 ↓ (3.24)	2.56 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
32%

Draw
31.3%

Cuiabá
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

29.1%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

30.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cuiabá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cuiabá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	30%	60%

Paysandu - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cuiabá: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Cuiabá (1.80) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cuiabá will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (C) 2. Edilson 35. Mauricio Antonio 6. Thalisson 16. Reverson 25. Ronaldo Henrique 8. Andre Lima 20. Denner 11. Marlon Douglas 98. Denilson 10. Mauricio Garcez	50. Luan Polli (G) 98. Matheusinho 3. Bruno Alves 6. Sander 8. Max Alves 5. Calebe Costa 27. Denilson Alves 20. David Miguel 7. Martinez A. 25. Alisson Safira (C) 11. Carlos Alberto
Substitutes
21. Bryan Borges 38. Carlos Eduardo 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 39. Goncalves P. 36. Gustavo Nicola 30. Marcelinho 19. Petterson Novaes 3. Quintana Y. 43. Ramon Vinicius 77. Rossi 99. Vinicius Faria 26. Wendel	45. De Lucca 15. Eduardo Vinicius 13. Guilherme Mariano 12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 77. Jadson 30. Lucas Mineiro 91. Luisao 23. Marcelo Henrique 66. Nathan Cruz 22. Nino Paraiba 16. Pasadore F. 47. Victor Barbara
Coaches
Marcio Fernandes	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Calebe Costa ↓, Guilherme Mariano ↑,
32', 0 - 1, Martinez A. ⚽, David Miguel (A),
45+2', Reverson 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Denilson ↓, Rossi ↑,
59', Carlos Alberto ↓, Jadson ↑,
65', Denner ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
65', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
65', Andre Lima ↓, Ramon Vinicius ↑,
69', Petterson Novaes 🟨,
73', Matheusinho 🟨,
74', Alisson Safira ↓, Nathan Cruz ↑,
74', Martinez A. ↓, Lucas Mineiro ↑,
75', Matheusinho ↓, Nino Paraiba ↑,
81', Marlon Douglas ↓, Wendel ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Mauricio Garcez (Pen),
90+2', Guilherme Mariano 🟨,
90+8', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 6).

Paysandu has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cuiabá is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela (Injury) Matheus Vargas (Injury) Thiago Heleno (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Yellow Cards) Asad Y. (Injury) Jader (Yellow Cards) Juan Christian (Yellow Cards) Mateus Pasinato (Inactive) Nathan Pelae (Injury)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Diogo Oliveira (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Paysandu - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 39.32%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Criciúma - Paysandu	2:4 ✺
23.09.25	Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Paysandu - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLLTL
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.25	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Operário Ferroviario - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
08.09.25	Cuiabá - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
06.06.25	Cuiabá - Paysandu	1:0
Brazilian Copa Verde
20.11.19	Paysandu - Cuiabá	0:2 penalties
14.11.19	Cuiabá - Paysandu	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.14	Paysandu - Cuiabá	1:2

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