Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Final

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.36	10.08	Watch
	1.39	4.2	8.1	Watch
	1.4	4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.39)	4.19 ↓ (4.5)	8.73 ↑ (7.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
67.2%

Draw
22.2%

Plaza Colonia
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.4%

20.8%

11.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.7%

19.6%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cortes B. (G) 17. Gularte E. 23. Mendez J. 34. Herrera N. 27. Lucas Hernandez 10. Fernandez L. 24. Jesus Trindade 5. Sosa I. 28. Baez J. 19. Arezo M. 11. Silvera M.	44. Reyes G. (G) 19. Wurth V. 18. Cayetano A. 16. Velazquez M. 22. Ramos J. 3. Calleros Y. (C) 5. Pachame S. 17. Otegui S. 8. Villalba D. 9. Alex Bruno 77. Acosta B.
Substitutes
40. Alvarez B. 25. Campana M. (G) 55. Couture L. 14. Cruz A. 33. Daguer J. 20. Milans P. 30. Muhlethaler S. 29. Remedi E. 6. Rodriguez K. 21. Silva G.	11. Bueno G. 80. Carrizo L. 30. Maidana A. 15. Meite Y. 10. Ocampo A. 23. Piriz F. 20. Redin E. 6. Redin M. 25. Silva J. (G) 14. Vergara H.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Mena L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Baez J. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
46', Gularte E. ↓, Milans P. ↑,
46', Pachame S. ↓, Piriz F. ↑,
59', 🟨,
61', Villalba D. ↓, Carrizo L. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Reyes G. (Own goal),
66', Wurth V. 🟨,
67', Acosta B. ↓, Vergara H. ↑,
67', Alex Bruno ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
71', Calleros Y. 🟨,
81', Arezo M. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
81', Lucas Hernandez ↓, Silva G. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Remedi E. ⚽,
86', Fernandez L. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
86', Vergara H. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Estadio Centenario.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 3.

Peñarol is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Plaza Colonia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Peñarol is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:12. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.39 are the expected chance of winning is 67.4%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.25	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
15.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWTW
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Plaza Colonia	0:2 ✺
20.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0
24.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
24.11.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:0
23.04.23	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
09.10.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1
Uruguay Copa
05.10.22	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1

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