Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Palermo (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Miramar Misiones		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	7	4.75	1.42	Watch
	8	4.33	1.36
	6.7	4.15	1.42
	7.76	4.59	1.43
	3.43	3.65	1.99	Watch
	6.6	4.17	1.47	Watch
	7.4	4.3	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.7 ↓ (8.35)	4.28 ↓ (4.43)	1.5 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miramar Misiones
14.2%

Draw
22.3%

Peñarol de Montevideo
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.1%

20.9%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.8%

20.3%

70%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miramar Misiones has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Moreno J. (G) 19. Olivera A. 14. Pereira G. 15. Alonso F. 4. Lopez P. 16. Gomez M. 22. Diaz O. 8. Pandiani A. 25. Olivera D. 9. Da Silva S. 24. Silvera F.	12. Cortes B. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Sosa I. 29. Remedi E. 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 10. Fernandez L. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
28. Gelos N. 23. Nunez D. 31. Pirez M. (G) 10. Ramirez G. 21. Rodriguez A. 37. Roldan M. 17. Saliadarre E. 29. Siri E. 11. Sosa A. 18. Tirado F.	19. Arezo M. 25. Campana M. (G) 14. Cruz A. 17. Gularte E. 24. Jesus Trindade 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 21. Silva G. 22. Suarez D. 8. Villalba H.
Coaches
Giordano B.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Olivera D. ⚽, Lopez P. (A),
44', 2 - 0, Da Silva S. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Sosa I. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
46', Baez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
46', Mendez J. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,
55', Fernandez L. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Arezo M. ⚽,
58', Olivera D. ↓, Gelos N. ↑,
61', Villalba H. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
67', Da Silva S. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
68', Pandiani A. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
70', Moreno J. 🟨,
75', Silvera F. ↓, Roldan M. ↑,
77', Muhlethaler S. 🟨,
79', Nunez D. 🟨,
80', 2 - 2, Arezo M. ⚽,
81', Milans P. ↓, Jesus Trindade ↑,
83', Diaz O. 🟨,
89', Nunez D. 🟨,
89', Ramirez G. 🟨,
90+5', Lopez P. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Miramar Misiones has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peñarol is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Miramar Misiones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is the obvious favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Miramar Misiones won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:15. (average 0.6:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Miramar Misiones won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.10.25	Montevideo City Torque - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Cerro - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Montevideo Wanderers	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Progreso - Miramar Misiones	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLWL
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.25	Tacuarembó - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	4:2
07.09.24	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
24.02.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	2:0
04.04.14	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
03.11.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	5:0

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