Match Info

Copa Uruguay - Semi-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Racing Montevideo		Plaza Colonia

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.16	3.1	3.56
	1.45	4.13	6.94	Watch
	2.13	3.18	3.37	Watch
	2.1	3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.12)	3.35 ↑ (3.25)	4.31 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
49%

Draw
28.7%

Plaza Colonia
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

28.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27.8%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Plaza Colonia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Plaza Colonia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Amade L. (G) 14. Brazionis 3. Bueno G. 8. Cairus F. 15. Cheuquepal D. 4. Cotugno G. 16. Da Silva E. 17. Ferreira M. 29. Gonzalez F. 81. Manzur I. 28. Suarez F.	44. Reyes G. (G) 77. Acosta B. 3. Calleros Y. (C) 18. Cayetano A. 7. Lopez A. 2. Lorenzi M. 17. Otegui S. 22. Ramos J. 20. Redin E. 6. Redin M. 8. Villalba D.
Substitutes
13. Alvarez F. 26. Bosca J. 6. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 12. Machado F. (G) 24. Mederos R. 18. Ramirez S. 43. Rodriguez A. 5. Rodriguez Y. 22. Severo A. 77. Tomatis B.	9. Alex Bruno 11. Bueno G. 80. Carrizo L. 30. Maidana A. 10. Ocampo A. 23. Piriz F. 25. Silva J. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 14. Vergara H. 19. Wurth V.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Mena L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Da Silva E. ⚽,
14', Calleros Y. 🟨,
14', Bueno G. 🟨,
32', Ramos J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Villalba D. ↓, Vergara H. ↑,
46', Redin M. ↓, Carrizo L. ↑,
46', Acosta B. ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
51', Otegui S. 🟨,
60', Otegui S. ↓, Piriz F. ↑,
66', Cairus F. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽,
68', Cheuquepal D. ↓, Tomatis B. ↑,
68', Suarez F. ↓, Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↑,
81', Tomatis B. 🟨,
83', Brazionis 🟨,
85', Gonzalez F. ↓, Bosca J. ↑,
87', Manzur I. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
90+3', Calleros Y. ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Ferreira M. (Pen),
1, Ramos J. (Pen),
2, Da Silva E. (Pen),
2, Alex Bruno (Pen),
3, Ramirez S. (Pen),
3, Lopez A. (Pen),
4, Espinosa Dovat T. N. (Pen),
4, Vergara H. (Pen),
5, Cairus F. (Pen),
5, Ocampo A. (Pen),
6, Tomatis B. (Pen),
6, Carrizo L. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Racing could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Racing won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.7:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Racing Montevideo - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.35%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Plaza Colonia - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.37%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
29.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
25.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Universitario Salto	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLTWW
- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1
05.04.25	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	0:1
28.11.23	Plaza Colonia - Racing Montevideo	0:1
18.06.23	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	4:1
03.05.23	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1
05.12.19	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:2
20.07.19	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:2

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