Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: Lasso L. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Plaza Colonia		Progreso

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.95
	2.38	3	2.98	Watch
	2.42	3	3.11
	2.45	3.09	2.97	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.19)	3.07 ↓ (3.18)	3.08 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
39.5%

Draw
30.3%

Progreso
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.1%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

29.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Plaza Colonia - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Plaza Colonia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Progreso will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 19. Wurth V. 2. Lorenzi M. 3. Calleros Y. 17. Otegui S. 5. Pachame S. 23. Piriz F. (C) 14. Vergara H. 8. Villalba D. 80. Carrizo L. 7. Lopez A.	1. Gentilio N. (G) 16. Trasante G. 4. Paolini M. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 40. Cougo A. 18. Silva G. 8. Pinheiro A. 24. De Los Santos M. 10. Lemmo I. 9. Silva G. 19. Lopez F.
Substitutes
77. Acosta B. 27. Barros C. 11. Bueno G. 18. Cayetano A. 30. Maidana A. 15. Meite Y. 10. Ocampo A. 6. Redin M. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M.	13. Carroso H. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 7. Garcia A. 3. Garcia F. 15. Hernandez R. 6. Kidd F. 14. Lopez N. 11. Lopez P. 25. Ruiz F. 17. Sosa F.
Coaches
Mena L.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽,
26', Lorenzi M. 🟨,
31', Paolini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Villalba D. ↓, Maidana A. ↑,
49', De Los Santos M. 🟨,
51', Maidana A. 🟨,
60', Pinheiro A. 🟨,
61', De Los Santos M. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
61', Silva G. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
65', Pachame S. ↓, Redin M. ↑,
65', Maidana A. ↓, Barros C. ↑,
75', Lemmo I. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
84', Wurth V. ↓, Cayetano A. ↑,
84', Lopez F. ↓, Lopez P. ↑,
84', Silva G. ↓, Carroso H. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 2.

In recent matches, Plaza Colonia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Progreso is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Progreso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	6:1 ✺
14.09.25	Plaza Colonia - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWTLL
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0 ✺
29.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Progreso - Miramar Misiones	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.25	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	1:1
30.10.21	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	2:1
05.07.21	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	1:2
21.01.21	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1
24.10.20	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	0:0
23.02.20	Progreso - Plaza Colonia	2:2
24.10.19	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1

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