Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Plaza Colonia		Liverpool Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.4	1.8	Watch
	4.05	3.3	1.82
	4.35	3.53	1.89
	4.19	3.13	1.96	Watch
	4.11	3.4	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.21 ↑ (3.43)	3.35 ↑ (3.3)	1.87 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
22.2%

Draw
27.9%

Liverpool Montevideo
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

28.1%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

28.1%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Liverpool Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Liverpool Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Liverpool Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Liverpool Montevideo will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Reyes G. (G) 19. Wurth V. 2. Lorenzi M. 18. Cayetano A. 22. Ramos J. 8. Villalba D. 3. Calleros Y. (C) 77. Acosta B. 17. Otegui S. 80. Carrizo L. 7. Lopez A.	25. Marquez E. (G) 2. Rea M. 23. Castillo E. 24. Amaro K. 3. Suarez L. 5. Catarozzi F. 16. Acosta L. 8. Napoli G. 11. Castro M. 19. Forclaz E. 10. Hernandez A.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 11. Bueno G. 30. Maidana A. 10. Ocampo A. 23. Piriz F. 20. Redin E. 6. Redin M. 25. Silva J. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 14. Vergara H.	32. Bregante F. 26. Cabral N. 29. de Mello G. 1. Gomez M. (G) 9. Machado R. 6. Milano S. 80. Mir M. 4. Perdomo F. 17. Soria N. 31. Wasilewsky L.
Coaches
Mena L.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Castro M. 🟨,
45+1', Villalba D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Wurth V. 🟨,
55', 0 - 1, Acosta L. ⚽,
60', Cayetano A. 🟨,
61', Wurth V. ↓, Redin E. ↑,
61', Acosta B. ↓, Vergara H. ↑,
68', Acosta L. ↓, Wasilewsky L. ↑,
74', Forclaz E. ↓, Mir M. ↑,
74', Otegui S. ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
74', Lorenzi M. ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
87', Amaro K. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
90+5', Vergara H. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 0.

Plaza Colonia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Liverpool has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Plaza Colonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Liverpool could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:24. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Liverpool Montevideo - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.8%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguay Copa
16.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:2 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Racing Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
01.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WLWWT
- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
03.10.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Boston River	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
31.05.25	Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1
20.04.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0
14.11.23	Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo	0:0
15.07.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:2
10.04.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	3:1
30.09.22	Plaza Colonia - Liverpool Montevideo	1:3
07.05.22	Liverpool Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:0

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