Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 9

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Harman J. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Pen-y-Bont		Briton Ferry Llansawel

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.90	5.75
	1.42	4.15	6.4
	1.47	4.24	6.93
	1.48	4.24	6.53	Watch
	1.45	4.15	6.75
	1.42	3.98	6.66
	1.42	4.1	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.7)	4.11 ↑ (3.48)	6.49 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
63.5%

Draw
22.3%

Briton Ferry Llansawel
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.1%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pen-y-Bont's performance.

Briton Ferry Llansawel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Briton Ferry Llansawel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pen-y-Bont that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Briton Ferry Llansawel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Pen y Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pen-y-Bont will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Higgs D. (G) 21. Baker A. 6. Davies M. (C) 11. Leko J. 4. Mehew T. 3. Melbourne M. 32. Shephard L. 33. Vaughan E. 9. Venables C. 23. Walker T. 7. Wood N.	13. Fuller W. (G) 20. Anderson O. 2. Bates L. 16. Bates M. 15. Cooper L. 4. Gammond A. 21. Jones J. 7. Owen R. 3. Packer D. 8. Price T. 9. Walters T.
Substitutes
10. Cann E. 60. Debono A. 17. Jefferies D. 20. Manga M. 55. Mashlan J. 25. Pennock A. (G) 14. Phillips I.	26. Cadeau T. 25. Gilpin D. (G) 22. Herdman L. 17. Jenkins T. 12. Lloyd J. 23. Nicholls M.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Dyer A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', Melbourne M. 🟥,
9', 0 - 1, Walters T. ⚽,
12', Leko J. 🟨,
13', 1 - 1, Walker T. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Venables C. ⚽,
43', 3 - 1, Leko J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jones J. ↓, Jenkins T. ↑,
60', Leko J. ↓, Manga M. ↑,
60', Mehew T. ↓, Jefferies D. ↑,
66', Cooper L. ↓, Lloyd J. ↑,
66', Price T. ↓, Herdman L. ↑,
69', Walker T. ↓, Cann E. ↑,
70', Baker A. ↓, Debono A. ↑,
75', Jenkins T. 🟨,
78', 3 - 2, Anderson O. ⚽,
82', Gammond A. 🟨,
83', Gammond A. ↓, Cadeau T. ↑,
90+4', Higgs D. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 1.

Pen-y-Bont is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Briton Ferry is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is the team to beat.

We predict that Pen-y-Bont will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Briton Ferry: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
11	Briton Ferry	12	3	3	6	11:20	-9	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.09.26	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWTTW
- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.09.26	Haverfordwest County - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Airbus UK Broughton	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	1:4 ✺
28.08.26	Cardiff Metropolitan - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:0 ✺
21.08.26	Flint Town United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
26.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:5
Welsh Cymru Premier
03.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:0
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 penalties
Welsh Cymru Premier
24.09.24	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1
11.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:2
Welsh League Cup
03.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:3

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