Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 8

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Ynys Park (Cwmafan)

Referee: Charlton-Fleming C. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Trefelin		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	6.75	4.40	1.35
	7.2	4.5	1.34
	6.9	5.58	1.36
	7.02	5.17	1.37	Watch
	6.65	5.5	1.34
	7.47	4.95	1.31
	7.2	4.6	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.03 ↓ (7.74)	4.96 ↑ (4.87)	1.35 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefelin
13.1%

Draw
18.6%

Pen-y-Bont
68.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.1%

19.2%

68.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.5%

18.3%

72.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefelin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Trefelin - Pen y Bont Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Coughlan S. (G) 20. Aman B. 10. Brock T. 4. Caramella-Gerrard L. 18. Degelman O. 7. Georgievsky K. 3. Horgan-Evans D. 19. Jones J. 5. MacDonald S. 2. Thomas M. 11. Ware L.	1. Higgs D. (G) 21. Baker A. 10. Cann E. 6. Davies M. 20. Manga M. 4. Mehew T. 3. Melbourne M. 32. Shephard L. 33. Vaughan E. 23. Walker T. 7. Wood N.
Substitutes
8. Davies J. 9. John D. 21. Jones H. (G) 14. Jones J. 17. Phillips L. 16. Piper R. 12. Saunders C.	5. Debono A. 17. Jefferies D. 11. Leko J. 55. Mashlan J. 25. Pennock A. (G) 14. Phillips I. 9. Venables C.
Coaches
Hill A.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 🟨,
61', Baker A. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
65', Cann E. ↓, Venables C. ↑,
68', Aman B. ↓, Davies J. ↑,
68', 🟨,
72', 0 - 1, Walker T. ⚽,
77', 🟨,
80', Thomas M. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
80', Degelman O. ↓, John D. ↑,
83', Brock T. ↓, Piper R. ↑,
83', Georgievsky K. ↓, Phillips L. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Trefelin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pen-y-Bont is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Trefelin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:6.

Including home match between the teams, Trefelin won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:6.

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Trefelin: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
15	Trefelin	12	0	3	9	5:30	-25	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.09.26	Holywell Town - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Trefelin	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Trefelin - Ammanford	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Trefelin - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Trefelin	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Trefelin - Pen-y-Bont	1:6

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