Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 7

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Livesey A. D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Pen-y-Bont		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.10	3.60
	2.04	3.05	3.35
	2.03	3.10	4.05
	2.13	3.11	3.67	Watch
	2.00	3.05	4.00
	1.98	3.22	3.94
	2.04	3.05	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.05)	3.1 ↓ (3.46)	3.74 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
45.6%

Draw
29.8%

Colwyn Bay
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

27%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

25.7%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Pen-y-Bont have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Colwyn Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Pen y Bont - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Higgs D. (G) 6. Davies M. 19. Hill R. 11. Leko J. 4. Mehew T. 3. Melbourne M. 32. Shephard L. 33. Vaughan E. 9. Venables C. 23. Walker T. 7. Wood N.	1. Halstead M. (G) 21. Astles R. 8. Bratley C. 9. Davies A. 11. Davies J. 6. Forde S. 3. Hart S. 19. Hill M. 17. Roberts E. 10. Robles L. 16. Williams J.
Substitutes
21. Baker A. 10. Cann E. 20. Manga M. 25. Pennock A. (G) 14. Phillips I. 8. Pritchard O. 72. Villacorta J.	31. Bubb C. (G) 23. Edwards A. 7. Kenny J. 18. Moore A. 25. Moran L. 13. Osment S. (G) 5. Sirrell L.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Wilde M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Leko J. ↓, Pritchard O. ↑,
20', Hill R. ↓, Cann E. ↑,
28', 1 - 0, Pritchard O. ⚽,
31', Vaughan E. 🟨,
40', Roberts E. 🟨,
41', Bratley C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Robles L. 🟨,
64', Davies A. ↓, Moore A. ↑,
68', Walker T. 🟨,
71', Pritchard O. ↓, Baker A. ↑,
72', Walker T. ↓, Manga M. ↑,
75', Hill M. ↓, Sirrell L. ↑,
85', Davies J. ↓, Kenny J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 2.

Pen-y-Bont is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Colwyn Bay's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pen-y-Bont will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Colwyn Bay: 1.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	6	22

Last Results with these Odds

Pen-y-Bont - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.59%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
31.08.26	Cambrian United - Pen-y-Bont	2:2 ✺
28.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Pen-y-Bont - Llandudno	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
07.08.26	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTWWW
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
31.08.26	Colwyn Bay - Llandudno	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	The New Saints - Colwyn Bay	5:1 ✺
21.08.26	Colwyn Bay - Airbus UK Broughton	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	3:0 ✺
07.08.26	Ammanford - Colwyn Bay	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
25.04.26	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 penalties
28.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	0:0
21.02.26	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	3:1
29.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	5:4
27.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0
16.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	5:0
03.02.24	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	1:2

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