Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Araujo D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Penafiel		Felgueiras

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	1.85	Watch
	3.65	3.35	1.95
	3.98	3.5	2.02
	3.72	2.72	2.30	Watch
	3.59	3.59	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (2.68)	3.31 ↑ (3.25)	2.01 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
25.5%

Draw
28.2%

Felgueiras
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

28.1%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

27.7%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penafiel's form might have worsened.

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Felgueiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penafiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Felgueiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Penafiel - Felgueiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Felgueiras will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Felgueiras (4.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Felgueiras (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 5. Sanchez J. 4. Miguel J. (C) 33. Moreira C. 27. Negrao G. 21. Pedro Sa 88. Alves R. 8. Reko 14. Pereira B. 19. Alcaina R. 20. Santos A.	13. Figueiredo C. (G) 61. Eiro 44. Junior M. 34. Silva A. 5. Rosas P. 18. Pereira G. (C) 6. Martins H. 78. Moreira V. 14. Jean-Marie M. 19. Lucas Duarte 9. Santos Teixeira L.
Substitutes
75. Alloh T. 37. Davo 3. Gustavo Fernandes 17. Kebe I. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 95. Sery J. 10. Silva J. 7. Vieira P. 22. Xico	20. Berna 33. Dario 4. Eduardo 25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 30. Feliz 21. Jean Felipe 10. Michel Costa 7. Viondi M. 12. Zangre A.
Coaches
Russiano P.	Bento A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Sanchez J. 🟨,
4', Pereira G. 🟨,
36', Silva A. 🟨,
39', Santos A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sanchez J. ↓, Xico ↑,
58', Negrao G. ↓, Davo ↑,
62', Santos Teixeira L. ↓, Feliz ↑,
62', Lucas Duarte ↓, Viondi M. ↑,
65', Eiro 🟨,
66', 1 - 0, Santos A. ⚽,
70', Pereira G. ↓, Michel Costa ↑,
70', Eiro ↓, Jean Felipe ↑,
71', Alves R. ↓, Alloh T. ↑,
72', Pedro Sa ↓, Kebe I. ↑,
78', Reko 🟨,
82', Alcaina R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Davo ⚽,
90+1', Martins H. ↓, Dario ↑,
90+4', Kebe I. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 10).

Penafiel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Felgueiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Felgueiras is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Portimonense B - Penafiel	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Lusitânia - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Penafiel - Chaves	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leixões - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
17.08.25	Penafiel - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLLT
- FC Felgueiras
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Sanjoanense - Felgueiras	0:4 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Felgueiras - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
22.08.25	Chaves - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Felgueiras - Marítimo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.04.25	Felgueiras - Penafiel	1:0
09.11.24	Penafiel - Felgueiras	2:1

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