Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Penafiel		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.35
	2.78	3.15	2.45
	2.96	3.3	2.54
	2.88	3.03	2.58
	2.75	3	2.4
	2.79	3.18	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (2.84)	3.13 ↓ (3.41)	2.46 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
32.8%

Draw
29.6%

Marítimo
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

27.1%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

26.1%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Marítimo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Penafiel - Marítimo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Marítimo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Penafiel (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 5. Sanchez J. 3. Mere J. 33. Moreira C. 7. Anzai S. 21. Pedro Sa 8. Reko (C) 75. Alloh T. 95. Sery J. 28. Schutte R. 37. Davo	1. Pastor A. (G) 17. Xavi Grande 4. Santos Junior E. A. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. (C) 25. Freitas A. 18. Danilovic V. 8. Cruz M. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 14. Raphael Guzzo 7. Pena Zauner E. 3. Butzke A.
Substitutes
19. Alcaina R. 88. Alves R. 17. Kebe I. 4. Miguel J. 27. Negrao G. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 20. Santos A. 34. Ze Leite	6. Andrade R. 68. Batista N. 90. Borukov P. 21. Bouzaidi S. 23. Henrique P. 98. Ibrahima 5. Madsen N. 9. Melro J. 34. Zavala K. (G)
Coaches
Aira J.	Moita M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Danilovic V. 🟨,
26', Schutte R. 🟨,
45', Moreira C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Sery J. ↓, Ze Leite ↑,
57', Davo ↓, Santos A. ↑,
70', Reko (Penalty Awarded),
71', Danilovic V. ↓, Ibrahima ↑,
72', Freitas A. ↓, Henrique P. ↑,
80', Pena Zauner E. ↓, Bouzaidi S. ↑,
80', Butzke A. ↓, Melro J. ↑,
83', Alloh T. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
84', Schutte R. ↓, Alcaina R. ↑,
90+2', Sanchez J. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
90+2', Cruz M. ↓, Batista N. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 0, Ze Leite ⚽,
90+8', Alcaina R. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Marítimo is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Liga Portugal

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Penafiel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13

Last Results with these Odds

Penafiel - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.55%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Marítimo - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.32%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
04.05.26	Torreense - Penafiel	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Penafiel - Porto B	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Leiria - Penafiel	4:2 ✺
11.04.26	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	4:3 ✺
04.04.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWLWW
- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
01.05.26	Marítimo - Leixões	3:2 ✺
26.04.26	Benfica B - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Torreense - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Marítimo - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Marítimo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1
29.03.25	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1
02.11.24	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:2
05.05.24	Penafiel - Marítimo	0:1
23.12.23	Marítimo - Penafiel	0:0
Club Friendly
20.07.22	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:1
Taça de Portugal
23.11.20	Penafiel - Marítimo	2:3 ET

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