Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)


	Leiria		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.5	4.75
	1.6	3.8	5.15
	1.61	3.85	6.09
	1.62	3.87	5.27	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.62	3.65	5.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	3.68 ↓ (3.71)	5.29 ↑ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
57.3%

Draw
25.2%

Penafiel
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.1%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

24.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Leiria - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 44. Marcelo 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 41. Daniel Borges 21. Pires M. 11. Jair da Silva 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C) 86. Michel D.	32. Femenias J. (G) 4. Miguel J. (C) 3. Mere J. 2. lano Imbene 27. Negrao G. 17. Kebe I. 8. Reko 75. Alloh T. 7. Anzai S. 28. Schutte R. 37. Davo
Substitutes
20. Gomes B. 18. Lottin A. 17. Lucho Vega 45. Mendes J. 99. Odehnal J. (G) 7. Quizera F. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H. 16. Ze Pedro	19. Alcaina R. 18. Escario J. 33. Moreira C. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 9. Rodrigues D. 5. Sanchez J. 20. Santos A. 34. Ze Leite
Coaches
Pereira F.	Aira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', Rofino V. G. 🟨,
20', Alloh T. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Munoz J. ⚽, Jair da Silva (A),
33', Pires M. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Munoz J. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', 2 - 1, Davo ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Alloh T. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
46', Michel D. ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
53', 3 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽, Pires M. (A),
62', Anzai S. ↓, Ze Leite ↑,
62', Mere J. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
64', 4 - 1, Daniel Borges ⚽, Maga (A),
69', Baro M. 🟨,
73', Ze Leite 🟨,
74', Schutte R. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
74', Davo ↓, Alcaina R. ↑,
81', Rofino V. G. ↓, Ze Pedro ↑,
81', Pires M. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
82', Baro M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
88', Munoz J. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
90+2', Joao Bravim 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 2, Reko (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 13).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Leiria is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leiria won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.26	Benfica B - Leiria	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Leiria - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Chaves - Leiria	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Leiria - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTWWL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.26	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	4:3 ✺
04.04.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Penafiel - Vizela	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Feirense - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Penafiel - Farense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0
02.03.25	Leiria - Penafiel	1:0
06.10.24	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0
25.04.24	Leiria - Penafiel	0:2
16.12.23	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0

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