Match Info

PORTUGAL: TAÇA DE PORTUGAL - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 25 November 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Penafiel		Setúbal

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	4.75
	1.55	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.6	4	5	Watch
	1.71	3.7	4.9
	1.7	3.73	4.64
	1.55	3.6	5.5
	1.65	3.68	5.45
	1.6	3.85	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.76)	3.75 ↑ (3.34)	5.11 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
57.1%

Draw
24.7%

Setúbal
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

27.3%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

27.4%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penafiel's performance.

Setúbal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Setúbal than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Penafiel - Setúbal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Balde M. (G) 11. Adilio 35. Cardoso F. 27. Freitas R. 68. Maga 44. Pereira R. 8. Reko 75. Ribeiro R. 30. Silva A. 15. Silva J. 6. Teixeira L. (C)	24. Neto T. (G) 8. Antunes M. 10. Caleb 25. Duque T. 9. Eli 19. Ezio 4. Henriques L. 22. Marouca J. 23. Monteiro J. 5. Montez A. 87. Zequinha (C)
Substitutes
26. Brito D. 19. Chico Teixeira 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 5. Pereira B. 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 10. Silva J. 9. Suker H. 99. Vieira P.	79. Ascenso F. 26. Balau D. . Banjai S. 20. Carvalho D. 11. Flavinho . Martins D. . Ng Y. (G) 17. Sequeira D. . Tuga

Preview

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Setúbal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Penafiel could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Penafiel is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
19.11.23	Belenenses - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
11.11.23	Penafiel - Porto B	3:2 ✺
04.11.23	Benfica B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
27.10.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
09.10.23	AVS - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLWL
- Vitoria Setúbal
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
12.11.23	Juventude de Évora - Setúbal	1:1 ✺
05.11.23	Setúbal - Barreirense	4:0 ✺
01.11.23	Sintrense - Setúbal	1:1 ✺
28.10.23	Setúbal - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.10.23	Leixões - Setúbal	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
25.11.18	Penafiel - Setúbal	1:4
Liga Portugal
21.02.15	Setúbal - Penafiel	0:1
20.09.14	Penafiel - Setúbal	2:0

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