Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 11

Date: 19 November 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Belenenses		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.8
	2.37	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.98
	2.63	3.15	2.98
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.47	3.16	2.79
	2.4	3.15	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.44)	3.17 ↓ (3.21)	2.81 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
37.6%

Draw
29.3%

Penafiel
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.5%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

29.9%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Belenenses - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Penafiel will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Oliveira G. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 13. Serra A. 37. Akas C. 48. Manso T. 19. Valente D. (C) 28. Cruz H. 6. Chaby F. 16. Chapi 7. Cle 9. Matos R.	1. Silva P. (G) 27. Freitas R. 6. Teixeira L. (C) 4. Miguel J. 15. Silva J. 8. Reko 13. Pinheiro Edu 35. Cardoso F. 68. Maga 11. Adilio 75. Ribeiro R.
Substitutes
18. Attard C. 3. Fabao 8. Gomes Tavares D. 22. Grilo D. (G) 77. Keita M. 17. Moninhas T. 21. Pina R. 11. Sambu M. 99. Silva M.	31. Balde M. (G) 21. Batista D. 19. Chico Teixeira 7. Firmino H. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho) 44. Pereira R. 20. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 30. Silva A. 99. Vieira P.
Coaches
Faisca V.	Cristovao H.

Preview

Belenenses has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
10.11.23	Feirense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
04.11.23	Belenenses - Vilaverdense	0:2 ✺
28.10.23	Leixões - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.10.23	Belenenses - Gil Vicente	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
08.10.23	Belenenses - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
11.11.23	Penafiel - Porto B	3:2 ✺
04.11.23	Benfica B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
27.10.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0 ✺
09.10.23	AVS - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
02.10.23	Penafiel - Nacional	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLL

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