Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 12

Date: 1 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Penafiel		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.5
	1.93	3.1	3.5
	2.1	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.11	3.27	3.84
	2.06	3.21	3.72	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.6
	2.05	3.3	3.64	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (2.03)	3.22 ↓ (3.3)	3.6 ↓ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
45.5%

Draw
28.8%

Mafra
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28.6%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

28.7%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Penafiel - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Mafra will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Balde M. (G) 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 88. Ewerton 68. Maga 20. Rodrigues T. 8. Reko 21. Batista D. 15. Silva J. 17. Gabriel Barbosa 34. Ze Leite	1. Fraisl M. (G) 2. Texel P. 4. Passi B. 66. Capitao D. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso 20. Maiga Y. 19. Iheanacho S. 9. Nibe A. 15. Guilherme (C) 90. Etim F.
Substitutes
26. Brito D. 3. Gustavo Fernandes 27. Negrao G. 77. Olamilekan Fatai S. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 14. Pereira B. 30. Silva A. 99. Skuka X. 7. Vieira P.	10. Fale M. 80. Goncalves V. 45. Kamara A. 17. Kolawole J. 7. Matos R. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 30. Ugboh M. (G)
Coaches
Cristovao H.	Ferreira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Passi B. 🟨,
7', Gabriel Barbosa (Pen),
12', 1 - 0, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Silva J. (A),
21', 1 - 1, Iheanacho S. ⚽, Etim F. (A),
45+3', Maiga Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
73', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Silva A. ↑,
73', Ewerton ↓, Olamilekan Fatai S. ↑,
82', Reko ↓, Skuka X. ↑,
85', Chriso ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
86', Beni D. ↓, Fale M. ↑,
90', Guilherme 🟨,
90+8', Iheanacho S. ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
90+16', Skuka X. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15:13 (average 1.1:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13:6 (average 1.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.24	Penafiel - Felgueiras	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Marítimo - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
26.10.24	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.10.24	Penafiel - SC Lusitânia	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
12.10.24	Alverca - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLLT
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.24	Mafra - Académico de Viseu	0:2 ✺
03.11.24	Felgueiras - Mafra	1:1 ✺
28.10.24	Mafra - Leiria	2:1 ✺
23.10.24	Porto B - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.24	Oliveira Hospital - Mafra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
09.03.24	Mafra - Penafiel	0:1
27.10.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0
05.02.23	Penafiel - Mafra	1:0
15.08.22	Mafra - Penafiel	3:0
26.02.22	Mafra - Penafiel	1:1
03.10.21	Penafiel - Mafra	2:1
28.02.21	Mafra - Penafiel	1:0

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