Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 19

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport MIX


	Perugia		Forlì

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.15
	2.13	3.05	3.41
	2.1	3.15	3.41	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.3
	2.15	2.94	3.38	Watch
	2.22	2.9	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.57)	2.99 ↓ (3.41)	3.36 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
42.3%

Draw
30.5%

Forlì
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

27%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

25.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Perugia's performance.

Forlì has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Forlì might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perugia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forlì than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Forlì could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Perugia - Forlì Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 31. Tozzuolo A. 5. Angella G. 28. Riccardi D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 20. Tumbarello G. 16. Bartolomei P. 32. Megelaitis L. 77. Manzari G. 9. Montevago D. 11. Bacchin L.	22. Martelli L. (G) 27. Manetti G. 25. Elia M. 4. Saporetti L. 24. Cavallini G. 10. Macri D. 23. De Risio C. 3. Menarini F. 7. Petrelli E. 11. Farinelli N. 30. Coveri V.
Substitutes
26. Calapai L. 19. Dottori C. 98. Giraudo F. 6. Giunti G. 4. Joselito 10. Matos 12. Moro L. (G) 76. Peruzzi M. 71. Rondolini P. 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 22. Vinti L. (G)	1. Calvani S. (G) 6. Franzolini A. 18. Giovannini A. 29. Graziani G. 2. Mandrelli N. 9. Manuzzi F. 17. Monaco C. 8. Ripani D. 33. Saporetti S. 21. Scorza C. 14. Spinelli A. 16. Valentini F. 12. Veliaj G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
13', Farinelli N. ↓, Scorza C. ↑,
18', 1 - 0, Manzari G. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Montevago D. ⚽,
44', 3 - 0, Manzari G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Manetti G. 🟨,
63', Menarini F. ↓, Ripani D. ↑,
63', Cavallini G. ↓, Spinelli A. ↑,
63', Manetti G. ↓, Mandrelli N. ↑,
63', Manzari G. ↓, Joselito ↑,
69', 4 - 0, Joselito ⚽,
77', Coveri V. ↓, Franzolini A. ↑,
80', Tumbarello G. ↓, Torrasi E. ↑,
80', Bacchin L. ↓, Matos ↑,
83', Megelaitis L. 🟨,
90', Montevago D. ↓, Dottori C. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Perugia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Perugia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Including home match between the teams, Perugia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Perugia - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.79%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
13.12.25	Campobasso - Perugia	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Perugia - Ternana	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Juventus U23 - Perugia	1:0 ✺
24.11.25	Perugia - Vis Pesaro	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Sassari Torres - Perugia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLLWT
- Forli FC
Italian Serie C Group B
13.12.25	Forlì - Carpi	4:2 ✺
08.12.25	Ascoli - Forlì	3:0 ✺
29.11.25	Forlì - Bra	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Pianese - Forlì	3:2 ✺
14.11.25	Forlì - Campobasso	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.24	Perugia - Forlì	4:2

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