Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 17

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Perugia		Ternana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.98	2.88	2.42
	3.17	2.83	2.58
	3.02	2.81	2.5	Watch
	2.9	2.63	2.45
	2.88	2.77	2.48	Watch
	3	2.9	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.61)	2.8 ↓ (2.94)	2.49 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
30.6%

Draw
32.6%

Ternana
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

31.3%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

32.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ternana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perugia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Perugia - Ternana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 26. Calapai L. 5. Angella G. 28. Riccardi D. 31. Tozzuolo A. 32. Megelaitis L. 24. Torrasi E. 20. Tumbarello G. 77. Manzari G. 7. Kanoute M. 9. Montevago D.	71. D'Alterio F. (G) 20. Donati F. 19. Capuano M. (C) 87. Martella B. 7. Romeo F. 8. McJannet E. 4. Vallocchia A. 43. Ndrecka A. 70. Durmush M. 9. Dubickas E. 27. Ferrante A.
Substitutes
11. Bacchin L. 16. Bartolomei P. 21. Broh J. 15. Dell'Orco C. 30. Giardino C. 98. Giraudo F. 6. Giunti G. 4. Joselito 10. Matos 12. Moro L. (G) 29. Ogunseye R. 76. Peruzzi M. 17. Terrnava D. 22. Vinti L. (G) 2. Yabre M.	2. Bianay Balcot C. 16. Garetto M. 10. Leonardi S. 6. Loiacono G. 13. Maestrelli A. 14. Meccariello B. 12. Morlupo A. (G) 30. Orellana M. 32. Pettinari S. 80. Proietti M. 5. Tripi F. 34. Turella M. 1. Vitali T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Ferrante A. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Tozzuolo A. ⚽,
38', Ndrecka A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Kanoute M. ↓, Matos ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Vallocchia A. ⚽,
65', Romeo F. ↓, Maestrelli A. ↑,
65', Dubickas E. ↓, Pettinari S. ↑,
72', Durmush M. 🟨,
72', Durmush M. ↓, Garetto M. ↑,
74', Tumbarello G. ↓, Giunti G. ↑,
74', Torrasi E. ↓, Ogunseye R. ↑,
81', Manzari G. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
81', Megelaitis L. ↓, Bartolomei P. ↑,
85', Ndrecka A. ↓, Meccariello B. ↑,
85', Ferrante A. ↓, Leonardi S. ↑,
86', Montevago D. 🟨,
90+5', Tozzuolo A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ternana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ternana has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
30.11.25	Juventus U23 - Perugia	1:0 ✺
24.11.25	Perugia - Vis Pesaro	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Sassari Torres - Perugia	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Perugia - Arezzo	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Pontedera - Perugia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWTTT
- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
30.11.25	Ternana - Guidonia Montecelio	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
26.11.25	Ternana - Giugliano	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
23.11.25	Ternana - Juventus U23	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Sambenedettese - Ternana	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Ternana - Vis Pesaro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
23.03.25	Ternana - Perugia	0:0
10.11.24	Perugia - Ternana	0:0
Italian Serie B
18.02.23	Perugia - Ternana	3:0
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0
30.04.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0
19.12.21	Perugia - Ternana	1:1
Italian Super Cup Serie C
22.05.21	Ternana - Perugia	1:0

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