Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 5

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Perugia		Spezia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.30	3.10	2.75
	2.40	2.95	2.65	Watch
	2.42	3.25	3.05
	3.05	2.96	2.37	Watch
	2.35	3.10	2.95
	2.48	3.23	2.81	Watch
	2.40	3.10	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.8)	3.1 ↑ (2.85)	2.77 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Perugia
37%

Draw
29.7%

Spezia
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

31.1%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

31.1%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Perugia's performance.

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perugia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Perugia - Spezia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zelezny R. (G) 4. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. (C) 5. Stramaccioni D. 14. Quirini E. 20. Carriero G. 8. Ladinetti R. 31. Conti G. 29. Renault G. 9. Sabbatani A. 10. Canotto L.	1. Micai A. (G) 31. Oyono J. 13. Sapola M. 6. Sganzerla R. 72. Capolupo S. 70. Bright K. 14. Capomaggio G. 24. Limonelli C. 77. Durmush M. 9. Mazzocchi S. (C) 11. Cardinali A.
Substitutes
6. Angeli M. 11. Borsoi M. 2. Cesarini A. 7. Cisco A. 72. Cortesi M. 19. Dottori C. 33. Langella C. 12. Moro L. (G) 15. Papazov D. 26. Seha S. 55. Strappini S. (G) 30. van Amersfoort P. 90. Vergani E.	12. Altemura T. (G) 20. Bastoni S. 44. Benvenuto M. 34. Cannavo K. 97. Cazzadori D. 22. Ciocci G. (G) 7. Di Serio G. 90. Fontanarosa R. 65. Giorgeschi S. 10. Jimenez K. 5. Joselito 37. Mateju A. 55. Spedalieri J. 28. Zilli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', Durmush M. 🟨,
22', Sabbatani A. 🟨,
38', Capolupo S. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Limonelli C. ⚽,
43', 0 - 2, Bright K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Limonelli C. ↓, Jimenez K. ↑,
46', Conti G. ↓, Borsoi M. ↑,
46', Renault G. ↓, Langella C. ↑,
51', Capolupo S. ↓, Bastoni S. ↑,
51', Durmush M. ↓, Cazzadori D. ↑,
57', Canotto L. ↓, Vergani E. ↑,
57', Quirini E. ↓, Cisco A. ↑,
62', Langella C. 🟨,
71', Sabbatani A. ↓, van Amersfoort P. ↑,
73', Stramaccioni D. 🟨,
78', Riccardi D. 🟨,
80', Cardinali A. ↓, Cannavo K. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Mazzocchi S. ⚽, Oyono J. (A),
87', Mazzocchi S. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 1.

In recent matches, Perugia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Spezia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Perugia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Spezia has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Spezia	8	7	1	0	15:4	11	22
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
13.09.26	Ravenna - Perugia	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Perugia - Pineto	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Vis Pesaro - Perugia	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Perugia - Ostia Mare	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
15.08.26	Perugia - Vis Pesaro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWTWL
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
12.09.26	Spezia - Livorno	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Sambenedettese - Spezia	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
02.09.26	Spezia - Vado	3:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
29.08.26	Spezia - Campobasso	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Spezia - Sassari Torres	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.02.20	Perugia - Spezia	0:3
21.09.19	Spezia - Perugia	2:2
27.04.19	Spezia - Perugia	1:1
15.12.18	Perugia - Spezia	1:1
17.03.18	Perugia - Spezia	3:0
21.10.17	Spezia - Perugia	4:2
05.05.17	Perugia - Spezia	0:0

Upcoming Matches