Match Info

Date: 16 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Referee: Maggioni L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport
Romania	Sport Extra
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Perugia		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	4	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
	1.9	3.25	4.15
	2.01	3.1	3.9
	2.06	3.17	4.37
	2	3.2	3.9
	1.94	3.34	4.1	Watch
	1.97	3.15	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.06)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	4.03 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
47.5%

Draw
29.2%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

28.8%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

29.7%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	35.7%	14.3%

Perugia - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Südtirol will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Perugia: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (16.39%), has project points - 39, has currently - 4, has a good chance of relegated (51%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Südtirol has the most likely position - 18 (10.2%), has project points - 43, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, importance 48, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Perugia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Südtirol is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Perugia is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Perugia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
09.10.22	Como - Perugia	1:0 ✺
01.10.22	Perugia - Pisa	1:3 ✺
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Perugia - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
03.09.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
09.10.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Benevento	1:1 ✺
01.10.22	Palermo - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
17.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
10.09.22	Como - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
04.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Pisa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.6 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
08.08.21	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
21.03.21	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0
29.11.20	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	1:1

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