Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 36

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Libero Liberati (Terni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257, Sky Sport Calcio


	Ternana		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.19	3.14	3.46
	2.27	3.1	3.08	Watch
	2.1	3	3
	2.18	3.36	3.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.97)	3.15 ↓ (3.2)	3.16 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
41.8%

Draw
29.2%

Perugia
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

28.8%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

29.4%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ternana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Perugia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Ternana - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. D'Alterio F. (G) 20. Donati F. 19. Capuano M. 87. Martella B. 17. Kerrigan L. 23. Majer Z. 16. Garetto M. 43. Ndrecka A. 30. Orellana M. 22. Aramu M. 9. Dubickas E.	1. Gemello L. (G) 26. Calapai L. 28. Riccardi D. 13. Stramaccioni D. 31. Tozzuolo A. 32. Megelaitis L. 20. Tumbarello G. 10. Canotto L. 24. Verre V. 23. Lisi F. 9. Montevago D.
Substitutes
38. Bruti T. 27. Ferrante A. 2. Kurti A. 10. Leonardi S. 13. Maestrelli A. 8. McJannet E. 14. Meccariello B. 12. Morlupo A. (G) 3. Pagliari M. 18. Panico G. 32. Pettinari S. 80. Proietti M. 5. Tripi F. 4. Vallocchia A. 1. Vitali T. (G)	5. Angella G. 11. Bacchin L. 16. Bartolomei P. 98. Bolsius D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 2. Esculino I. 4. Joselito 21. Ladinetti R. 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 99. Nwanege K. 18. Perugini M. 73. Polizzi M. 17. Terrnava D. 22. Vinti L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Calapai L. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Capuano M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Calapai L. ↓, Angella G. ↑,
54', Lisi F. ↓, Bolsius D. ↑,
61', Aramu M. ↓, Ferrante A. ↑,
62', Tumbarello G. ↓, Ladinetti R. ↑,
62', Canotto L. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Ferrante A. ⚽,
69', 2 - 1, Bacchin L. ⚽,
70', Orellana M. ↓, Proietti M. ↑,
72', Riccardi D. ↓, Nepi A. ↑,
75', Majer Z. ↓, McJannet E. ↑,
79', Martella B. ↓, Maestrelli A. ↑,
79', Garetto M. ↓, Tripi F. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Montevago D. ⚽,
88', Tozzuolo A. 🟨,
90+6', Verre V. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ternana won 2.

Ternana is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Perugia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ternana may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ternana will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ternana won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ternana won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.5:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
08.04.26	Juventus U23 - Ternana	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Guidonia Montecelio - Ternana	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Ternana - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Vis Pesaro - Ternana	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Ternana - Gubbio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTTLL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
04.04.26	Perugia - Juventus U23	2:2 ✺
29.03.26	Vis Pesaro - Perugia	0:1 ✺
20.03.26	Perugia - Sassari Torres	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Arezzo - Perugia	1:1 ✺
09.03.26	Perugia - Pontedera	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
07.12.25	Perugia - Ternana	1:2
23.03.25	Ternana - Perugia	0:0
10.11.24	Perugia - Ternana	0:0
Italian Serie B
18.02.23	Perugia - Ternana	3:0
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0
30.04.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0
19.12.21	Perugia - Ternana	1:1

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