Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Cesena

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.05	2.32	Watch
	2.98	3	2.42	Watch
	3.03	3.15	2.67
	2.53	3.19	2.67	Watch
	3.03	3.02	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.53)	3.08 ↓ (3.19)	2.51 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
32.1%

Draw
30.5%

Cesena
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

28.9%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

28.2%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Cesena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Südtirol-Alto Adige, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	43.7%	31.2%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Cesena will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Cesena (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Poluzzi G. (C) 94. El Kaouakibi H. 3. Bordon F. 28. Kofler R. 79. Molina S. 6. Martini J. 18. Tronchin S. 17. Casiraghi D. 24. Davi S. 90. Odogwu R. 33. Merkaj S.	33. Klinsmann J. (C) 15. Ciofi A. 19. Zaro G. 24. Mangraviti M. 11. Ciervo R. 70. Francesconi M. 4. Castagnetti M. 14. Berti T. 99. Frabotta G. 7. Blesa J. 9. Shpendi C.
Substitutes
31. Adamonis M. (G) 46. Brik D. 14. Coulibaly M. 23. Davi F. 11. Italeng J. 8. Mallamo A. 4. Mancini D. 5. Masiello A. 9. Pecorino E. 21. Tait F. 34. Veseli F. 7. Zedadka K.	17. Adamo E. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 29. Balde S. 43. Bertaccini F. 13. Celia R. 40. Ferretti L. (G) 39. Fontana N. (G) 18. Guidi M. 32. Olivieri M. 26. Piacentini M.
Coaches
Castori F.	Mignani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Bordon F. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Shpendi C. ⚽, Berti T. (A),
34', Mangraviti M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Martini J. ↓, Coulibaly M. ↑,
46', El Kaouakibi H. ↓, Davi F. ↑,
55', Bordon F. ↓, Masiello A. ↑,
62', Davi S. ↓, Zedadka K. ↑,
66', Shpendi C. ↓, Olivieri M. ↑,
73', Ciervo R. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
73', Berti T. ↓, Guidi M. ↑,
78', Odogwu R. ↓, Italeng J. ↑,
80', Blesa J. ↓, Balde S. ↑,
80', Frabotta G. ↓, Celia R. ↑,
80', Davi F. 🟨,
90+3', Olivieri M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Südtirol: Pietrangeli N. (Inactive) Veseli F. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Cesena: Bisoli D. (Inactive) Magni V. (Inactive) Olivieri M. (Inactive) Siano A. (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Südtirol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Südtirol-Alto Adige - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.49%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Cesena - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.57%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Empoli	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Pescara - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Reggiana	3:1 ✺
19.09.25	Frosinone - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLTWT
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Spezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Cesena - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Frosinone - Cesena	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cesena - Palermo	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Venezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.04.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Cesena	1:1
03.11.24	Cesena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0
Italian Serie C Group B
25.04.21	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Cesena	1:1
09.01.21	Cesena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0
23.10.19	Cesena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1

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