Match Info

Date: 9 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Referee: Gariglio M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Como		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.7
	2.5	3.15	2.8
	2.49	3.2	2.75
	2.62	3.34	2.89
	2.45	3.2	2.9
	2.45	3.5	2.73	Watch
	2.44	3.25	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.7)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	2.78 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie B with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Soccer Plus

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Current Win Probability

Como
37.7%

Draw
28.5%

Perugia
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

30.1%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

30.3%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Como than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Como - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Como will win (votes: 12 - 40%). Perugia will win (votes: 6 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Como: 22.5% – 57.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Como has the most likely position - 20 (23.36%), has project points - 37, has currently - 3, has a good chance of relegated (58%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 20 (13.55%), has project points - 41, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (45%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 27, importance 46, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Como has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Perugia is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Como won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Como won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie B
30.09.22	Nuova Cosenza - Como	3:1 ✺
17.09.22	Como - SPAL	3:3 ✺
10.09.22	Como - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
03.09.22	Frosinone - Como	2:0 ✺
29.08.22	Como - Brescia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.10.22	Perugia - Pisa	1:3 ✺
18.09.22	Ternana - Perugia	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Perugia - Ascoli	1:0 ✺
03.09.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1 ✺
28.08.22	Perugia - Bari	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
20.03.22	Perugia - Como	0:1
06.11.21	Como - Perugia	4:1
Italian Super Cup Serie C
08.05.21	Perugia - Como	2:1
Italian Serie B
16.01.16	Como - Perugia	1:0
06.09.15	Perugia - Como	2:0

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