Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App
Argentina	21:30	Fox Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	11:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	01:30	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	21:30	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Paramount+, Sky+, TV Globo, Zapping
Bulgaria	02:30	Max Sport 3
Canada	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	21:30	ESPN Premium
Colombia	19:30	ESPN
Croatia	01:30	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
France	01:30	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	04:30	Silk Universal
Greece	02:30	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	07:30	Mola TV
Israel	02:30	Sport 4
Netherlands	01:30	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
New Zealand	13:30	beIN Connect
Nigeria	01:30	Sporty TV
North Central America	—	ESPN 3 North
Peru	19:30	ESPN
Poland	01:30	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	00:30	Sport TV1
Russia	03:30	Okko Sport
Serbia	01:30	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	01:30	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	ESPN South
Spain	01:30	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	03:30	S Sport+
United Kingdom	00:30	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Venezuela	20:30	ESPN, Inter
International	00:30	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3.1
	2.32	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.44	3.2	3.26
	2.39	3.21	3.13	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3	Watch
	2.42	3.14	3.22	Watch
	2.32	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.44)	3.18 ↓ (3.3)	3.13 ↑ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
40.1%

Draw
29.7%

Botafogo RJ
30.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.9%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

30.7%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	38.5%	23.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Botafogo will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 8% – 64.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. (C) 6. Perez R. 14. Garcia D. 26. Sequeira L. 8. Fernandez L. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.	12. John Victor (G) 22. Vitinho 15. Bastos 34. Adryelson 13. Telles A. 5. Danilo Barbosa 17. Marlon Freitas 37. Matheus Martins 6. Tche Tche (C) 10. Savarino J. 9. Tiquinho Soares
Substitutes
90. Avenatti F. 9. Batista F. 5. Cristoforo S. 12. De Amores G. (G) 34. Herrera N. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 22. Matheus Babi 18. Mayada C. 97. Medina A. 10. Ramirez G. 25. Sosa I.	28. Allan 18. Almada T. 20. Barboza A. 27. Carlos Alberto 33. Carlos Eduardo 1. Fernandez R. (G) 26. Gregore 99. Jesus I. 7. Luiz Henrique 21. Marcal 4. Ponte M. 70. Romero O.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Bastos 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Baez J. ⚽, Fernandez L. (A),
45+4', Matheus Martins 🟨,
45+5', Aguerre W. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Garcia D. ↓, De Amores G. ↑,
46', Matheus Martins ↓, Almada T. ↑,
49', Vitinho 🟨,
58', Vitinho ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
58', Tche Tche ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
60', Olivera M. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
60', Silvera M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
60', Sequeira L. ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Baez J. ⚽, Lucas Hernandez (A),
67', Bastos ↓, Allan ↑,
69', Ponte M. 🟨,
69', Ponte M. 🟨,
71', Almada T. 🟨,
73', Savarino J. ↓, Barboza A. ↑,
76', Milans P. ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
86', Sosa I. 🟨,
88', 2 - 1, Almada T. ⚽, Marlon Freitas (A),
89', 3 - 1, Batista F. ⚽, Perez R. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-5.

Recent matches Peñarol is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Botafogo is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Botafogo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
23.10.24	Botafogo RJ - Peñarol de Montevideo	5:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:0 ✺
16.10.24	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
11.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0 ✺
06.10.24	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWWL
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.10.24	Botafogo RJ - Peñarol de Montevideo	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.24	Botafogo RJ - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
28.09.24	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.10.24	Botafogo RJ - Peñarol de Montevideo	5:0

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