Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Racing

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.8
	2.78	2.82	2.82	Watch
	2.83	2.9	2.94
	2.96	2.70	2.81	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.75	Watch
	2.85	2.91	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.74)	2.87 ↓ (3.08)	2.84 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
33.8%

Draw
33%

Racing
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

30.9%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

31.3%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Racing has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	69.2%	7.7%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Racing will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Peñarol (1.94) (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Peñarol (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Racing (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cortes B. (G) 17. Gularte E. 23. Mendez J. 34. Herrera N. 15. Olivera M. (C) 29. Remedi E. 5. Sosa I. 7. Cabrera J. 24. Jesus Trindade 10. Fernandez L. 11. Silvera M.	21. Arias G. (C) 3. Di Cesare M. 13. Sosa S. 23. Colombo N. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 5. Nardoni J. 32. Almendra A. E. 27. Rojas G. 28. Solari S. 7. Vergara D. 9. Adrian Martinez
Substitutes
19. Arezo M. 25. Campana M. (G) 80. David Terans 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 37. Muhlethaler S. 4. Rodriguez J. 21. Silva G. 22. Suarez D. 32. Umpierrez L. 8. Villalba H.	77. Balboa A. 25. Cambeses F. (G) 17. Conechny T. 2. Garcia A. 34. Mura F. 18. Pardo F. 19. Rodriguez I. 6. Rojo M. 26. Sanchez R. 22. Torres E. 10. Vietto L. 36. Zuculini B.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Costas G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Fernandez L. ↓, David Terans ↑,
34', Colombo N. 🟨,
41', Adrian Martinez 🟨,
45', Sosa I. 🟨,
45+7', Cortes B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Di Cesare M. 🟨,
64', Gularte E. 🟨,
65', Vergara D. ↓, Conechny T. ↑,
68', Silvera M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
68', Sosa I. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
71', Almendra A. E. 🟨,
73', Di Cesare M. ↓, Pardo F. ↑,
73', Almendra A. E. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, David Terans ⚽, Arezo M. (A),
82', Gularte E. ↓, Suarez D. ↑,
82', Cabrera J. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
82', Solari S. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
82', Colombo N. ↓, Rojo M. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Peñarol is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Racing's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Peñarol: Baez J. (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:0 penalties ✺
28.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWW
- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.08.25	Boca Juniors - Racing	1:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
03.08.25	Racing - Deportivo Riestra	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.07.25	Racing - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Belgrano - Racing	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Racing - Barracas Central	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWLWL

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