Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.33	3.9	9	Watch
	1.37	4.33	8
	1.34	4.35	9
	1.35	4.71	9.94
	1.35	4.61	9.29	Watch
	1.33	4.2	9
	1.35	4.55	9.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.43)	4.38 ↑ (3.98)	9.04 ↑ (7.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
68.7%

Draw
21.1%

Cerro
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

23.3%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

22.4%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Britos S. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 13. Darias E. 10. Fernandez L. 77. Angulo L. 19. Arezo M.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 22. Suarez D. 5. Macelli A. (C) 20. Butti F. 17. Rodriguez G. 8. Miranda A. 19. Sosa E. 44. Carlos R. 27. Barros C. 18. Sena N. 28. Cambon A.
Substitutes
29. Aguerre W. (G) 18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 25. Gonzalez M. 4. Gularte E. 21. Jesus Trindade 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L.	10. Aleman B. 31. Amaro J. 4. Arguello M. 40. Capdevila D. (G) 16. Guasone J. 32. Mederos R. 9. Morales B. 29. Paiva S. 33. Rijo T. 7. Severo A.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Pintos A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Arezo M. ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Angulo L. ⚽,
27', Sena N. ↓, Severo A. ↑,
30', Miranda A. 🟨,
39', Miranda A. 🟨,
44', Olivera M. 🟥,
45', Remedi E. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 1, Barros C. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sosa E. ↓, Amaro J. ↑,
46', Angulo L. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
50', Rodriguez K. 🟨,
51', Carlos R. 🟨,
58', Darias E. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
58', Lemos M. ↓, Gularte E. ↑,
60', Severo A. 🟨,
62', Carlos R. ↓, Aleman B. ↑,
71', Cambon A. 🟨,
72', Barros C. 🟨,
75', Cambon A. ↓, Paiva S. ↑,
78', Fernandez N. 🟨,
80', Fernandez L. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
80', Arezo M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
90', Suarez D. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Fernandez N. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Amaro J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 4.

Peñarol is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cerro is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Peñarol is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 43:14. (average 2.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:9. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Central Español - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWWL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.03.26	Cerro - Progreso	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Cerro - Boston River	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Cerro - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.25	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0
28.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0
27.04.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	Abandoned
22.09.24	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:5
09.03.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:0
19.08.23	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
04.02.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0

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