Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Referee: Simon N. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS, Paramount+


	Phoenix Rising		Detroit City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.85
	2.23	3.25	3.05
	2.32	3.17	3.15	Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.13	Watch
	2.23	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.79)	3.18 ↓ (3.53)	3.05 ↓ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
40.9%

Draw
28.9%

Detroit City
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

26.2%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

27.1%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Phoenix Rising's form might have worsened.

Detroit City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Detroit City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Phoenix Rising, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Detroit City than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Detroit City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Phoenix Rising - Detroit City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Henry T. (G) 2. Smith C. 4. Mar Boye P. 34. Montgomery B. 14. Cuello E. 8. Okello N. 6. Sainte C. F. 10. Avayevu H. 9. Sacko I. 91. Cabral R. 7. Margaritha J.	21. Herrera C. (G) 2. Williams R. 5. Carroll S. . (C) 30. Amoo-Mensah D. 12. Bryant M. 6. Chapman J. 39. Williams R. 11. Rutz C. 10. Cedeno J. 3. Villanueva A. 99. Adebayo-Smith J.
Substitutes
29. Formella D. 22. Johnson D. 38. Kowall C. 3. Neville H. 44. Ping J. 1. Rakovsky P. (G) 19. Rivera D. 17. Scearce J. 77. Walls C.	33. Doner M. 24. Gasso D. 9. Morris B. 45. Polisi M. 91. Saldana C. (G) 7. Smith D. 4. Wiedt S.
Coaches
Kah P.	Dichio D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Williams R. 🟨,
15', Okello N. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Smith C. ⚽, Margaritha J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
50', Margaritha J. 🟨,
57', Sainte C. F. ↓, Scearce J. ↑,
57', Montgomery B. ↓, Walls C. ↑,
59', Rutz C. ↓, Morris B. ↑,
60', Adebayo-Smith J. ↓, Smith D. ↑,
69', Cabral R. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
69', Margaritha J. ↓, Rivera D. ↑,
71', Villanueva A. ↓, Doner M. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Avayevu H. ⚽, Johnson D. (A),
79', Avayevu H. ↓, Formella D. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Smith D. ⚽, Williams R. (A),
89', 2 - 2, Smith D. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 3, Cedeno J. ⚽, Chapman J. (A),
90+3', Cedeno J. ↓, Wiedt S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Phoenix Rising will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Phoenix Rising won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:1 (average 3:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Phoenix Rising won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
06.04.25	San Antonio - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	3:1 ✺
22.03.25	Phoenix Rising - Rhode Island	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	El Paso Locomotive - Phoenix Rising	4:4 ✺
08.03.25	Phoenix Rising - Tulsa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WLTTL
- Detroit City FC
USL Championship
05.04.25	Detroit City - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Louisville City - Detroit City	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Detroit City - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
15.03.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Detroit City	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Miami - Detroit City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
11.05.24	Detroit City - Phoenix Rising	1:1
16.09.23	Phoenix Rising - Detroit City	5:0

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