Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

Referee: Garcia E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Monterey Bay		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.10	3.50	1.93
	2.95	3.25	2.08
	3.31	3.89	2.13
	3.13	3.92	2.02	Watch
	3.25	3.55	2.10
	3.25	3.67	2.05	Watch
	3.15	3.55	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (3.02)	3.62 ↑ (3.4)	2.04 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
29.2%

Draw
25.5%

Phoenix Rising
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

27%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

26.3%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Jackson J. (C) 22. Garcia J. 5. Gordon N. 25. Egwu K. 3. Ritchie S. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 17. Glasgow O. 88. Lletget S. 15. Barajas F. 20. Paul I.	1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 4. Mar Boye P. 5. Czichos R. 87. Flores D. 13. Moursou J. 17. JP Scearce (C) 70. Torres J. 8. Gomez D. 7. Sacko I. 23. Badji D.
Substitutes
10. Canete F. 1. Delgado F. (G) 47. Elliot Q. 32. Farnsworth Z. 16. Jacob Montes 93. Judson 21. Otoya D.	27. Ambursley C. 20. Biasi L. 51. Essengue A. 68. Irwin J. 14. Odunze C. (G) 19. Rivera D. 48. Schmitt T. 11. Studenhofft G.
Coaches
Covelo A.	Kah P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', Barajas F. 🟨,
68', Badji D. ↓, Studenhofft G. ↑,
68', Gomez D. ↓, Schmitt T. ↑,
69', Czichos R. ↓, Essengue A. ↑,
69', Garcia J. ↓, Elliot Q. ↑,
79', 0 - 1, Flores D. ⚽, Mar Boye P. (A),
80', Ross N. ↓, Jacob Montes ↑,
80', Lletget S. ↓, Canete F. ↑,
82', Paul I. ↓, Otoya D. ↑,
86', Sacko I. ↓, Biasi L. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Nakamura R. ⚽,
90+1', Flores D. ↓, Rivera D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 3.

Monterey Bay is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Phoenix Rising has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Monterey Bay - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.39%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
29.08.26	Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
15.08.26	Oakland Roots - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Monterey Bay - New Mexico United	2:5 ✺
05.08.26	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLTLL
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
29.08.26	Phoenix Rising - Indy Eleven	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Phoenix Rising - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
18.07.26	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	3:2
17.05.25	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	2:0
29.03.25	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	3:1
04.10.24	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	1:2
16.03.24	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	1:0
29.07.23	Monterey Bay - Phoenix Rising	0:2
15.04.23	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	1:1

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