Match Info

Polish Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach (Gliwice)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport


	Piast Gliwice		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.92	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.92	3.55	2.29
	2.95	3.36	2.28	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.2
	2.87	3.44	2.31	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3.08)	3.43 ↑ (3.21)	2.23 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piast Gliwice
31.3%

Draw
27%

Lech Poznań
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

27.8%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

28.1%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piast Gliwice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Piast will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Lech will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Plach F. (G) 29. Drapinski I. 5. Juande 4. Czerwinski J. (C) 28. Borowski F. 17. Boisgard Q. 10. Dziczek P. 6. Chrapek M. 7. Felix J. 9. Dalmau A. 11. Sanca L.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 72. Skrzypczak M. 15. Gurgul M. 99. Rodriguez P. 6. Ouma T. 24. Jagiello F. 8. Gholizadeh A. 9. Ishak M. (C) 88. Ismaheel T.
Substitutes
63. Barkovskiy G. 77. Jirka E. 36. Lewicki J. 19. Lubowiecki K. 23. Mucha S. 15. Pitan L. 33. Szymanski K. (G) 20. Tomasiewicz G. 80. Vallejo H.	7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 14. Bengtsson L. 20. Gumny R. 43. Kozubal A. 56. Lisman K. 4. Moutinho J. 77. Palma L. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Mysliwiec D.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Ouma T. 🟨,
23', Jagiello F. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
24', Ouma T. ↓, Kozubal A. ↑,
44', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Dziczek P. 🟨,
49', Pereira J. 🟨,
58', Pereira J. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
58', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
59', Borowski F. ↓, Jirka E. ↑,
62', Drapinski I. 🟨,
63', Dalmau A. ↓, Barkovskiy G. ↑,
63', Sanca L. ↓, Lewicki J. ↑,
63', Felix J. ↓, Vallejo H. ↑,
68', Thordarson G. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Agnero Y. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
74', Drapinski I. ↓, Tomasiewicz G. ↑,
77', Czerwinski J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Piast won 2.

Piast is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lech's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Piast won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:24. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Piast won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 0.9:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.11.25	Piast Gliwice - Widzew Łódź	0:2 ✺
22.11.25	Raków Częstochowa - Piast Gliwice	1:3 ✺
08.11.25	GKS Katowice - Piast Gliwice	1:3 ✺
31.10.25	Piast Gliwice - Korona Kielce	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
28.10.25	Odra Opole - Piast Gliwice	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWTW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Wisła Płock - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Lech Poznań - Lausanne-Sport	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.25	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
09.11.25	Arka Gdynia - Lech Poznań	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznań	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.05.25	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	1:0
29.11.24	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	0:0
Club Friendly
29.06.24	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.12.23	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	0:1
22.07.23	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:2
12.03.23	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:1
28.08.22	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	1:0

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