Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach (Gliwice)

Referee: Myc W. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Spain	GolStadium
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Piast Gliwice		Zagłębie Lubin

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.25	4	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.75
	1.95	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.36	4.44
	1.95	3.32	4.31	Watch
	1.91	3.2	3.9
	1.96	3.35	4.12	Watch
	1.89	3.4	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.2)	3.27 ↑ (3.06)	4.04 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piast Gliwice
48.1%

Draw
28.7%

Zagłębie Lubin
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

29.2%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

28.6%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piast Gliwice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Piast Gliwice's performance.

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zagłębie Lubin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Piast Gliwice that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zagłębie Lubin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Piast will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Piast: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Plach F. (G) 55. Twumasi E. 4. Czerwinski J. (C) 5. Juande 36. Lewicki J. 20. Tomasiewicz G. 10. Dziczek P. 11. Sanca L. 7. Felix J. 80. Vallejo H. 63. Barkovskiy G.	1. Buric J. (G) 31. Orlikowski I. 13. Grzybek M. 25. Nalepa M. 4. Michalski D. 16. Corluka J. 44. Regula M. 8. Dabrowski D. (C) 26. Kolan J. 27. Diaz J. 17. Szabo L.
Substitutes
28. Borowski F. 6. Chrapek M. 9. Dalmau A. 29. Drapinski I. 3. Fikaj E. 12. Grelich J. (G) 70. Katsantonis A. 31. Lesniak O. 90. Lima I. 98. Lokilo J. 22. Mokwa T. 33. Szymanski K. (G)	20. Dziewiatowski M. 12. Gikiewicz R. (G) 9. Kosidis M. 7. Kowalczyk S. 84. Ligocki J. 35. Lucic L. 88. Mlinaric M. 18. Radwanski A. 19. Sypek J. 94. Urbanski M. 11. Wozniak A.
Coaches
Mysliwiec D.	Ojrzynski L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Tomasiewicz G. ⚽, Dziczek P. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Corluka J. ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Kolan J. 🟨,
57', Sanca L. ↓, Lokilo J. ↑,
61', Szabo L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
61', Diaz J. ↓, Radwanski A. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Michalski D. ⚽, Radwanski A. (A),
72', Tomasiewicz G. ↓, Lesniak O. ↑,
72', Felix J. ↓, Chrapek M. ↑,
74', Kolan J. ↓, Dziewiatowski M. ↑,
81', Vallejo H. ↓, Lima I. ↑,
81', Barkovskiy G. ↓, Katsantonis A. ↑,
86', Grzybek M. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
86', Regula M. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
89', 1 - 3, Kosidis M. ⚽, Sypek J. (A),
90', Kosidis M. 🟨,
90+2', Dziczek P. 🟨,
90+2', Dziewiatowski M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Piast won 3.

Piast has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Zagłębie Lubin is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Zagłębie Lubin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Piast is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Lawniczak A. (Inactive) Lucic L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Piast: Drapinski I. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Piast won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:17. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Piast won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1:0.5).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Piast Gliwice: 0.83% Zaglebie: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	12:13	-1	15
9	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16:15	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Zagłębie Lubin - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 30.19%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.26	Cracovia - Piast Gliwice	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Motor Lublin	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLLWW
- Zagłębie Lubin
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Wisła Płock	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Korona Kielce - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Zagłębie Lubin - GKS Katowice	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	2:2
01.03.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	0:1
24.08.24	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0
15.04.24	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0
07.10.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	1:1
12.02.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	0:2
29.07.22	Piast Gliwice - Zagłębie Lubin	0:1

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