Match Info

Serie D - Round 4

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra (Piracicaba)


	Piracicaba		Maricá

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.26	4.81
	1.67	3.39	5.23	Watch
	1.7	3.1	4.5
	1.71	3.18	4.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.07)	3.23 ↑ (2.85)	4.88 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piracicaba
53.3%

Draw
28.1%

Maricá
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

32.1%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

31.2%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piracicaba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Piracicaba's performance.

Maricá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maricá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Piracicaba than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Piracicaba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maricá than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Piracicaba - Maricá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 1 - 0, Henry ⚽,

Preview

Piracicaba is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Maricá's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Piracicaba may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Piracicaba is considered a favorite.

We predict that Piracicaba will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- XV de Piracicaba
Brazilian Serie D
18.04.26	Piracicaba - Velo Clube	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
15.04.26	Água Santa - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	EC Noroeste - Piracicaba	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
08.04.26	Piracicaba - Ituano	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Piracicaba - Nova Iguaçu	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWTWW
- Maricá FC
Brazilian Serie D
18.04.26	Maricá - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Nova Iguaçu - Maricá	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Maricá - Velo Clube	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	5:2 ✺
01.03.26	Maricá - Nova Iguaçu	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWWLT

Piracicaba - Maricá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide