Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	ESPN 5
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Greece	ERT 2, ERT Sports 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Israel	Sport 3
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Platense		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	3.10	2.90	2.63	Watch
	2.90	2.80	2.65
	2.85	2.80	2.75	Watch
	3.12	2.92	2.74
	2.87	2.87	2.87
	2.95	2.85	2.70
	3.29	2.89	2.49	Watch
	2.95	2.80	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.58)	2.85 ↓ (3.08)	2.69 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Platense
31.5%

Draw
33.2%

Fluminense
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

30.3%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

31.7%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Platense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Platense than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Platense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	83.3%	16.7%

Platense - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Fluminense (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Cozzani J. (G) 25. Saborido J. 13. Vazquez I. (C) 34. Mendia M. 4. Lagos A. 26. Ferreira P. 24. Barrios M. 7. Mainero G. 18. Merlini B. 43. Retamar K. 79. Sepulveda B.	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 29. Millan J. 6. Rene 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 10. PH Ganso 30. Soteldo Y. 7. Hulk
Substitutes
15. Amarfil M. 33. Gauto J. 5. Gomez I. 38. Ingenthron C. 99. Lencina G. 11. Lopez N. 21. Lotti A. 6. Raggio E. 3. Silva T. 22. Sumavil N. (G) 16. Togni G. 10. Zapiola F.	32. Acosta L. 19. Castillo R. 13. Guilherme Arana 21. Igor Rabello 44. Jemmes 46. Julio Fidelis 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 2. Samuel Xavier 11. Savarino J. 90. Serna K.
Coaches
Palermo M.	Marcao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Millan J. 🟨,
13', Vazquez I. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Mainero G. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 0, Sepulveda B. ⚽, Mainero G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 2 - 1, Canobbio A. ⚽, Hulk (A),
61', Lagos A. 🟨,
63', PH Ganso 🟨,
72', Soteldo Y. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
75', Merlini B. ↓, Zapiola F. ↑,
79', PH Ganso ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
80', Mainero G. ↓, Gauto J. ↑,
90+3', Hercules ↓, Otavio ↑,
90+3', Hulk ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
90+4', Canobbio A. ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
90+5', Gauto J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

Platense is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fluminense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Platense: Bobadilla H. (Inactive) Gimenez L. (Inactive) Goni G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nasif T. (Knee Injury) Quiros S. (Inactive) Victor Cuesta (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Fluminense: Alisson (Hip Injury) Cano G. (Injury) Hulk (Inactive) Ignacio (Injury) John Kennedy (Knee Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury) Nonato (Yellow Cards) Samuel Xavier (Shoulder Injury) Thiago Silva (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Platense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Fluminense: 9.38% Platense: 0.75%

Last Results with these Odds

Fluminense - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.56%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Platense
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Platense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.09.26	Fluminense - Platense	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.09.26	Platense - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Defensa y Justicia - Platense	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.08.26	Platense - Instituto Córdoba	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTLW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Fluminense	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.09.26	Fluminense - Platense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.09.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	3:3 ✺
22.08.26	Fluminense - Remo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.09.26	Fluminense - Platense	2:0

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