Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 14

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday


	Plymouth Parkway		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	4.1	4.2	1.55
	4.1	4.3	1.6
	3.99	4.66	1.64
	4.05	4.54	1.61
	4.25	4.2	1.6
	4.1	4.3	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (5.19)	4.37 ↓ (4.45)	1.6 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Parkway
22.2%

Draw
20.9%

Merthyr Town
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

20.5%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

20%

63.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Parkway has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Parkway than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Plymouth Parkway that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
31', 0 - 2, Simpson K. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 0 - 3, Twamley L. ⚽,
56', 1 - 3, Hall C. ⚽,
63', 2 - 3, Watts-Barciela J. ⚽,
67', 2 - 4, Frazer T. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Plymouth Parkway is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Merthyr is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Merthyr could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Merthyr have a series of home games.

In this match Merthyr is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth Parkway won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3:7 (average 0.6:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth Parkway won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:6 (average 0.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Parkway
English Southern League South Division
29.10.24	Plymouth Parkway - Wimborne Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.10.24	Plymouth Parkway - Chichester City	0:4 ✺
English Southern League South Division
22.10.24	Dorchester Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:0 ✺
19.10.24	Chertsey Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:2 ✺
15.10.24	Plymouth Parkway - Totton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLLWL
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
26.10.24	Merthyr Town - Frome Town	4:0 ✺
19.10.24	Merthyr Town - Marlow	2:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:0 ✺
English Southern League South Division
28.09.24	Merthyr Town - Wimborne Town	6:0 ✺
24.09.24	Merthyr Town - Winchester City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
14.03.24	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	1:3
14.10.23	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	1:1
07.02.23	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	0:1
20.08.22	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	0:1
English FA Cup
12.09.15	Plymouth Parkway - Merthyr Town	0:2

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