Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier South - Round 33

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday


	Totton		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.75	4.4
	1.67	3.76	4.84
	1.69	3.85	4.67
	1.61	4.05	4.35
	1.65	3.75	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (2.12)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	4.53 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Totton
55.7%

Draw
24%

Merthyr Town
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

25.8%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

24.6%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Totton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Totton's performance.

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Merthyr Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Totton than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Totton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Merthyr Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Totton - Merthyr Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Rees R. ⚽,
82', 1 - 1, Rendell S. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Totton won 4.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

In this match Totton is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Totton to win the game is with odds 1.72.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Totton won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12:5 (average 2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Totton won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Totton
English Southern League South Division
22.02.25	Swindon Supermarine - Totton	1:1 ✺
18.02.25	Totton - Havant & Waterlooville	3:1 ✺
08.02.25	Totton - Marlow	6:1 ✺
05.02.25	Gosport Borough - Totton	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Gloucester City - Totton	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWWT
- Merthyr Town
English Southern League South Division
22.02.25	Merthyr Town - Bracknell Town	5:1 ✺
15.02.25	Wimborne Town - Merthyr Town	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Merthyr Town - Plymouth Parkway	2:2 ✺
04.02.25	Merthyr Town - Basingstoke Town	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Marlow - Merthyr Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
14.01.25	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:1
English FA Trophy
05.10.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	1:0
English Southern League South Division
20.04.24	Totton - Merthyr Town	2:0
11.11.23	Merthyr Town - Totton	1:3
English FA Trophy
31.10.23	Totton - Merthyr Town	2:1
English FA Cup
06.10.12	Totton - Merthyr Town	3:2

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