Match Info

III Liga - Group II - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce		Noteć Czarnków

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	2.5
	2.52	3.5	2.32
	2.45	3.73	2.33
	2.44	3.37	2.63	Watch
	2.63	3.39	2.47	Watch
	2.35	3.55	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.25)	3.49 ↓ (3.53)	2.48 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
37.2%

Draw
26.1%

Noteć Czarnków
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

25.8%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

24.7%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Noteć Czarnków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noteć Czarnków than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Noteć Czarnków Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nowe Skalmierzyce won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nowe Skalmierzyce won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.54%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Polish Division 3 - Group II
28.09.25	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Flota Świnoujście	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Wda Świecie	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Września - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLLW
- MKS Noteć Czarnków
Polish Division 3 - Group II
27.09.25	Noteć Czarnków - Kluczevia Stargard	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Cartusia Kartuzy - Noteć Czarnków	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Lech Poznań 2 - Noteć Czarnków	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Noteć Czarnków - Września	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Noteć Czarnków - Luzino	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group II
19.04.25	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Noteć Czarnków	1:0
21.09.24	Noteć Czarnków - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	0:4
18.05.24	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce - Noteć Czarnków	3:1
28.10.23	Noteć Czarnków - Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	1:1

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