Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Pogoń Szczecin		Piast Gliwice

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2	3.5	3.3
	2.02	3.55	3.3	Watch
	2.06	3.72	3.57
	1.36	4.46	9.40	Watch
	2.08	3.55	3.45	Watch
	1.93	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.03)	3.7 ↑ (3.6)	4.26 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
50.6%

Draw
26.4%

Piast Gliwice
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

25.8%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

26.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Piast Gliwice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Piast Gliwice might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.3%	13.6%	9.1%

Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). Piast will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pogoń Szczecin (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pogoń Szczecin will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 22. Loncar D. 13. Keramitsis D. 32. Koutris L. 7. Juwara M. 8. Ulvestad F. 19. Ndiaye M. 90. Greenwood S. 9. Molnar R. 11. Grosicki K. (C)	26. Plach F. (C) 55. Twumasi E. 5. Juande 29. Drapinski I. 20. Tomasiewicz G. 10. Dziczek P. 98. Lokilo J. 6. Chrapek M. 7. Felix J. 11. Sanca L. 63. Barkovskiy G.
Substitutes
15. Ali H. 6. Bieganski J. 38. Jakubowski R. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 99. Kostorz K. 17. Lis J. 18. Mukairu P. 14. Pozo J. 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.	17. Boisgard Q. 28. Borowski F. 77. Jirka E. 31. Lesniak O. 36. Lewicki J. 22. Mokwa T. 23. Mucha S. 15. Pitan L. 79. Rychta D. (G) 33. Szymanski K. (G) 80. Vallejo H.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Molder M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', Twumasi E. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Ndiaye M. ⚽, Greenwood S. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Barkovskiy G. ⚽, Juande (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tomasiewicz G. ↓, Lewicki J. ↑,
46', Loncar D. ↓, Ali H. ↑,
69', Lokilo J. ↓, Jirka E. ↑,
69', Twumasi E. ↓, Mokwa T. ↑,
74', Molnar R. ↓, Przyborek A. ↑,
74', Ali H. 🟨,
79', Juwara M. ↓, Mukairu P. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Grosicki K. (Pen),
90', Felix J. ↓, Vallejo H. ↑,
90+1', Chrapek M. ↓, Lesniak O. ↑,
90+1', Grosicki K. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
90+2', Kostorz K. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 2.

In recent matches, Pogoń Szczecin has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Piast is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Piast may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Pogoń Szczecin will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Leo Borges (Injury)

There will not play in Piast: Dalmau A. (Red Card) Katsantonis A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 0.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Szczecin won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 0.7:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Szczecin - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.71%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Korona Kielce - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLWW
- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.09.25	Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza	4:2 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Korona Kielce 2 - Piast Gliwice	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Piast Gliwice	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.09.25	Piast Gliwice - GKS Tychy	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
13.04.25	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1
Polish Cup
26.02.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.10.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice	1:0
Club Friendly
26.06.24	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.04.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice	0:2
20.10.23	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0
29.04.23	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0

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