Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Pogoń Szczecin		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	2	3.5	3.2	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.15	Watch
	2.11	3.74	3.46
	2.06	3.75	3.33	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.3
	2.09	3.65	3.34	Watch
	2.12	3.5	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.93)	3.59 ↑ (3.14)	3.29 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
45.4%

Draw
26.1%

Radomiak Radom
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

26.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Radomiak Radom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Pogoń Szczecin - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Users Predictions: Pogoń Szczecin will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pogoń Szczecin will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 22. Loncar D. 13. Keramitsis D. 23. Mendy B. 8. Ulvestad F. 14. Pozo J. 90. Greenwood S. 32. Koutris L. 18. Mukairu P. 11. Grosicki K. (C)	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 74. Kingue S. 26. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. 10. Alves R. 28. Kaput M. 27. Wolski R. (C) 7. Lopes V. 25. Maurides 21. Balde E.
Substitutes
15. Ali H. 6. Bieganski J. 2. Huja M. 7. Juwara M. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 99. Kostorz K. 17. Lis J. 19. Ndiaye M. 20. Paryzek P. 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.	6. Baro R. 5. Blasco J. 16. Cichocki M. 77. Donis C. 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 37. Molendowski M. 17. Niziolek A. 15. Tapsoba A. 3. Wilson-Esbrand J.
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', Mendy B. 🟨,
30', Alves R. 🟨,
30', Keramitsis D. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Greenwood S. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Mukairu P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Greenwood S. 🟨,
54', 2 - 1, Balde E. ⚽, Grzesik J. (A),
59', Kaput M. ↓, Donis C. ↑,
59', Lopes V. ↓, Baro R. ↑,
67', Pozo J. ↓, Przyborek A. ↑,
67', Maurides ↓, Tapsoba A. ↑,
67', Balde E. ↓, Wilson-Esbrand J. ↑,
69', Loncar D. 🟨,
75', Greenwood S. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Tapsoba A. ⚽, Wilson-Esbrand J. (A),
82', Grzesik J. 🟨,
83', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
86', Mukairu P. ↓, Juwara M. ↑,
86', Koutris L. ↓, Smolinski K. ↑,
90', Wolski R. ↓, Leandro ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 1.

Pogoń Szczecin is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Radomiak is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Radomiak may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pogoń Szczecin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Leo Borges (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Radomiak: Molendowski M. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Szczecin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Cup
02.12.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Widzew Łódź	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.11.25	GKS Katowice - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
24.11.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Zagłębie Lubin	5:1 ✺
09.11.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
03.11.25	Wisła Płock - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.11.25	Radomiak Radom - Górnik Zabrze	4:0 ✺
23.11.25	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
07.11.25	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
03.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
27.10.25	Radomiak Radom - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	5:1
10.05.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0
08.11.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Radomiak Radom	0:1
16.02.24	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	0:4
13.08.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Radomiak Radom	0:2
27.05.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Radomiak Radom	4:0
13.11.22	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2

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