Match Info

Division 1 - Round 9

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Grodzisk Mazowiecki)

Referee: Szypula P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Górnik Łęczna

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.9	3.7
	1.9	3.6	3.4
	1.88	3.7	3.55
	1.89	3.82	3.59
	30.00	14.05	1.01	Watch
	1.85	3.89	3.69
	1.88	3.55	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.89 ↑ (1.88)	5.22 ↑ (3.55)	3.23 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
25.3%

Draw
28.6%

Górnik Łęczna
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

26.1%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

25.4%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's form might have worsened.

Górnik Łęczna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Górnik Łęczna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+25.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Górnik Łęczna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 52. Olewinski O. 21. Los K. 4. Korczakowski I. 10. Jaron D. (C) 71. Szczepaniak M. 7. Jedrasik J. 19. Adamski R.	1. Pindroch B. (G) 21. Bednarczyk J. 6. David Abbott G. 10. Deja A. 23. Ogaga D. 11. Tkacz D. 88. Osipiuk O. 8. Kryeziu E. (C) 17. Spacil B. 18. Spiaczka B. 22. Orlik K.
Substitutes
. Barnowski D. 9. Gieroba S. 80. Glacel M. (G) 8. Gulczynski G. 11. Kargulewicz K. 92. Krupa J. 13. Lis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 20. Wypart O.	5. Broda M. 73. Doba S. 15. Krawczyk S. 13. Kroczek D. 20. Malamis P. 80. Olszak D. (G) 86. Rafa Santos 91. Szczytniewski S. 7. Traore S.
Coaches
Stokowiec P.	Stolarczyk M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', Kryeziu E. ↓, Rafa Santos ↑,
14', 0 - 1, Spiaczka B. ⚽, Deja A. (A),
22', Tkacz D. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽, Jedrasik J. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Spacil B. ⚽, Tkacz D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', Korczakowski I. 🟨,
59', Ogaga D. 🟨,
61', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Gieroba S. ↑,
61', Jedrasik J. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
72', 1 - 3, Farbiszewski B. (Own goal),
73', Spacil B. ↓, Kroczek D. ↑,
76', Jaron D. ↓, Staniszewski J. ↑,
79', Bednarczyk J. 🟨,
81', Olewinski O. ↓, Wypart O. ↑,
86', Spiaczka B. ↓, Doba S. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 3, Adamski R. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 3, Adamski R. ⚽,
90+3', David Abbott G. 🟨,
90+5', Lis J. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Grodzisk Mazowiecki has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Górnik Łęczna has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Grodzisk Mazowiecki might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
30.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Chrobry Głogów	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	4:1 ✺
10.08.25	Wisła Kraków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLWL
- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
30.08.25	Górnik Łęczna - Stal Rzeszów	0:4 ✺
25.08.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Górnik Łęczna	2:2 ✺
21.08.25	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Siedlce	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	GKS Tychy - Górnik Łęczna	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Stal Mielec - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTTTT

Upcoming Matches