Match Info

Division 1 - Round 5

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Grodzisk Mazowiecki)

Referee: Sulikowski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Znicz Pruszków

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	3.4
	1.87	3.6	3.5
	1.9	3.75	3.45	Watch
	1.9	4.01	3.57
	1.90	3.75	3.63	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.4
	1.91	3.72	3.44
	1.87	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.81)	3.67 ↑ (3.32)	3.55 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
48.8%

Draw
25.2%

Znicz Pruszków
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.9%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.2%

25.5%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Znicz Pruszków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Znicz Pruszków than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	6.7%	33.3%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Znicz will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 7 - 50%). Znicz (votes: 7 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Znicz (1.86) (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Znicz (votes: 13 - 61.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 52. Olewinski O. 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 27. Konstantyn J. 4. Korczakowski I. 21. Los K. (C) 77. Adkonis J. 71. Szczepaniak M. 19. Adamski R.	12. Napieraj K. (G) 20. Borecki M. 8. Proczek T. 5. Jach J. 11. Moskwik P. (C) 19. Karol M. 90. Nowakowski J. 14. Okhronchuk V. 7. Sokol D. 22. Tabara K. 9. Majewski R.
Substitutes
9. Gieroba S. 80. Glacel M. (G) 8. Gulczynski G. 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 11. Kargulewicz K. 13. Lis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 20. Wypart O.	2. Brysiak H. 10. Ciepiela B. 17. Kazimierczak A. 99. Koprowski O. 21. Mak M. 23. Misztal P. (G) 53. Nadolski A. 6. Pawlik M. 77. Skladowski F.
Coaches
Stokowiec P.	Struhar P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Sokol D. ⚽, Moskwik P. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Olewinski O. ⚽, Noiszewski K. (A),
42', 2 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽, Korczakowski I. (A),
43', 3 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽, Adkonis J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Jach J. ↓, Koprowski O. ↑,
59', 4 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽,
62', Adamski R. ↓, Gieroba S. ↑,
62', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
68', Borecki M. ↓, Pawlik M. ↑,
68', Proczek T. ↓, Mak M. ↑,
69', Korczakowski I. ↓, Staniszewski J. ↑,
70', Konstantyn J. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
81', Majewski R. ↓, Kazimierczak A. ↑,
81', Adkonis J. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
83', Nowakowski J. 🟨,

Preview

Grodzisk Mazowiecki is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Znicz has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Znicz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Grodzisk Mazowiecki is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
10.08.25	Wisła Kraków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Miedź Legnica	4:0 ✺
26.07.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Stal Rzeszów	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Unia Skierniewice - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWTWW
- Znicz Pruszków
Polish Division 1
10.08.25	Znicz Pruszków - Polonia Warsaw	1:4 ✺
01.08.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Znicz Pruszków	4:0 ✺
25.07.25	Znicz Pruszków - Stal Mielec	4:5 ✺
18.07.25	ŁKS Łódź - Znicz Pruszków	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.25	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.06.24	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	1:2
07.07.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	1:0
Polish Division 2
05.03.22	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	0:1
22.08.21	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:1

Upcoming Matches