Match Info

Division 1 - Round 8

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Polonii (Warsaw)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 3, TVP Sport app


	Polonia Warsaw		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	1.82	4.1	3.25
	1.9	3.6	3.3
	1.92	3.95	3.3	Watch
	1.91	4.38	3.42
	1.91	3.99	3.38	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.3
	1.89	3.88	3.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.91)	3.91 ↓ (4.16)	3.33 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Polonia Warsaw
48.7%

Draw
23.6%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

22.4%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

22.4%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Polonia Warsaw have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Polonia Warsaw aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Polonia will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Grodzisk Mazowiecki (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Kuchta M. (C) 99. Durmus I. 3. Salihu H. 4. Szur P. 5. Hoxhallari E. 17. Dadok R. 16. Poczobut B. 8. Wojciechowski O. 23. Skrabb S. 20. Brasido D. 9. Zjawinski L.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 52. Olewinski O. 21. Los K. 6. Farbiszewski B. 99. Noiszewski K. 11. Kargulewicz K. 77. Adkonis J. 16. Gajgier A. 10. Jaron D. (C) 71. Szczepaniak M. 19. Adamski R.
Substitutes
10. Bajdur M. 26. Gnaase D. 2. Grudniewski M. 21. Kapusta A. 11. Mlynski M. 44. Piotrowski B. 1. Sandach A. (G) 90. Spiewak K. 7. Vega D.	9. Gieroba S. 80. Glacel M. (G) 8. Gulczynski G. 4. Korczakowski I. 92. Krupa J. 13. Lis J. 31. Staniszewski J. 20. Wypart O.
Coaches
Pawlak M.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Durmus I. ⚽, Dadok R. (A),
19', Adkonis J. 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Dadok R. ⚽, Skrabb S. (A),
35', 2 - 1, Adamski R. ⚽, Kargulewicz K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wojciechowski O. ↓, Piotrowski B. ↑,
57', Jaron D. ↓, Korczakowski I. ↑,
60', Poczobut B. 🟨,
63', Salihu H. 🟨,
72', Dadok R. ↓, Vega D. ↑,
72', Szczepaniak M. ↓, Gieroba S. ↑,
72', Kargulewicz K. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
76', Salihu H. ↓, Grudniewski M. ↑,
80', Olewinski O. ↓, Wypart O. ↑,
80', Adkonis J. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
82', Brasido D. ↓, Mlynski M. ↑,
82', Skrabb S. ↓, Gnaase D. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Grodzisk Mazowiecki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Polonia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Polonia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
23.08.25	ŁKS Łódź - Polonia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
19.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Wieczysta Kraków	1:6 ✺
15.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Znicz Pruszków - Polonia Warsaw	1:4 ✺
02.08.25	Stal Mielec - Polonia Warsaw	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLTWW
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
23.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Chrobry Głogów	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	4:1 ✺
10.08.25	Wisła Kraków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:2 ✺
02.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Miedź Legnica	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.02.22	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warsaw	1:0
Polish Division 3 - Group I
15.05.21	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:2
03.04.21	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warsaw	3:3
13.03.21	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warsaw	1:0
13.09.19	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1

Upcoming Matches