Match Info
Premier League - Round 16Date: 12 February 2026, ThursdayLocation: Kiira Road Police Arena (Kampala)
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Police |
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Lugazi Municipal |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.49 |
3.6 |
6.1 |
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 |
1.42 |
3.9 |
6.77 |
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1.4 |
3.75 |
7 |
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1.4 |
3.8 |
8.05 |
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1.37 |
3.6 |
8 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.42 ↓
(1.48) |
3.73 ↓
(3.8) |
7.18 ↑
(6.14) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Police
63.4% | Draw
24.1% | Lugazi Municipal
12.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Police has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)Lugazi Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Police than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugazi Municipal than the current prediction. (+1.9%)Police - Lugazi Municipal Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 15', 1 - 0, Bbaale C. ⚽,
- 24', 2 - 0, Ikamba B. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 77', Ikamba B. 🟨,
- 87', 2 - 1, Kalanzi A. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 and 11).Police is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).Lugazi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1). In this match, Police is considered a favorite.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Police won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).Including home matches between the teams, Police won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:1 | 2 | 7 |
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| 8 | Lugazi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 6 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Ugandan Super League | | | 10.12.25 | Lugazi Municipal - Police | 1:1 | | 12.02.25 | Lugazi Municipal - Police | 1:0 | | 20.11.24 | Police - Lugazi Municipal | 0:0 | | Uganda Big League | | | 24.02.24 | Police - Lugazi Municipal | 1:1 | | 12.10.23 | Lugazi Municipal - Police | 0:0 |
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