Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1


	Police FC		Kariobangi Sharks

	1	X	2
	1.78	2.94	4.83
	1.78	3.03	5.09	Watch
	1.86	2.96	4.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.47)	2.98 ↓ (3.5)	4.94 ↓ (8.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Police FC
50.7%

Draw
30.8%

Kariobangi Sharks
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

26.1%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

25.2%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Police FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Police FC's form might have worsened.

Kariobangi Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kariobangi Sharks's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Police FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kariobangi Sharks than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kariobangi Sharks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Police FC - Kariobangi Sharks Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Police won 2.

Police is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Kariobangi Sharks has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Police may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Police is the obvious favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Police won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Police won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
26.04.25	Kenya CB - Police FC	1:2 ✺
18.04.25	Police FC - Ulinzi Stars	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Nairobi City Stars - Police FC	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Posta Rangers - Police FC	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Police FC - Muranga Seal	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLTWW
- Kariobangi Sharks
Kenyan FKF Cup
01.05.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
26.04.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Bandari	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Muranga Seal - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Talanta	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Nairobi City Stars - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
22.11.24	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	0:0
23.06.24	Police FC - Kariobangi Sharks	2:2
26.08.23	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	0:0
08.03.23	Police FC - Kariobangi Sharks	3:2
08.01.23	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	1:2
11.02.22	Police FC - Kariobangi Sharks	0:1
08.12.21	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	1:3

Police FC - Kariobangi Sharks: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide