Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Police FC		Shabana

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.68	3.25
	2.29	2.63	3.46
	1.96	3.01	4.01	Watch
	2.4	2.61	3.33	Watch
	2.3	2.57	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.92)	2.7 ↓ (2.9)	3.51 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Police FC
40.4%

Draw
33.7%

Shabana
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

31.6%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

30.3%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Police FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Police FC's form might have worsened.

Shabana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shabana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Police FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabana than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shabana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Police FC - Shabana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Gilbert A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 and 9).

Police is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Shabana has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Shabana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Police is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Police won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Police won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
26.11.25	Bidco United - Police FC	2:3 ✺
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Police FC - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Police FC - Sofapaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWLW
- Shabana FC
Kenyan Premier League
23.11.25	Muranga Seal - Shabana	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Ulinzi Stars - Shabana	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Shabana	0:0 ✺
29.10.25	Shabana - AFC Leopards	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Shabana - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
10.11.24	Shabana - Police FC	1:0
17.02.24	Police FC - Shabana	1:0
16.09.23	Shabana - Police FC	1:1

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