Match Info

FKF Mozzart Bet Cup - Final

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday


	Tusker		Police FC

	1	X	2
	3.30	2.78	2.36
	1.53	3.65	6.35	Watch
	3.20	2.50	2.40
	3.49	2.48	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.29)	2.85 ↑ (2.7)	3.39 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tusker
35%

Draw
35.3%

Police FC
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

33.5%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

34.2%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tusker's performance.

Police FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Police FC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tusker that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Police FC than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Police FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tusker - Police FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Simiyu I. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Omar A. ⚽,
37', 2 - 1, Simiyu I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 1.

In recent matches, Tusker has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Police is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Tusker has had a series of home games.

Police is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Tusker won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tusker won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
31.05.26	Tusker - APS Bomet	1:1 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
16.05.26	Tusker - Kenya CB	1:0 penalties ✺
03.05.26	Ulinzi Stars - Tusker	1:2 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
24.04.26	Tusker - Mara Sugar	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Tusker - Sofapaka	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWWLT
- Kenya Police FC
Kenyan Premier League
31.05.26	Police FC - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:1 ✺
Kenyan FKF Cup
16.05.26	Police FC - Bandari	1:0 penalties ✺
02.05.26	Shabana - Police FC	0:1 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
25.04.26	Shabana - Police FC	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	AFC Leopards - Police FC	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
03.04.26	Police FC - Tusker	1:0
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2
08.02.25	Tusker - Police FC	0:0
29.09.24	Police FC - Tusker	1:1
20.12.23	Tusker - Police FC	1:0
15.04.23	Tusker - Police FC	1:0
28.01.23	Police FC - Tusker	3:0

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