Match Info

Division 1 - Round 18

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka (Bytom)

Referee: Krumplewski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Polonia Bytom		Górnik Łęczna

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.1	5.25	Watch
	1.47	4.55	5.5	Watch
	1.51	4.52	5.74
	1.52	4.47	5.25	Watch
	1.54	4.25	5.45
	1.45	4.5	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.61)	4.4 ↑ (3.85)	5.59 ↑ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Bytom
62.2%

Draw
21.1%

Górnik Łęczna
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

23.9%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

22.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Bytom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Bytom than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	21.4%	0%

Polonia Bytom - Górnik Łęczna Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia Bytom (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (2.24) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Polonia Bytom (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Górnik Łęczna (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Polonia Bytom will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia Bytom (votes: 3 - 60%). Górnik Łęczna (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Mazur K. (G) 14. Szymusik G. 30. Krzyzak O. 77. Szymanski J. 22. Calavera J. 29. Terlecki K. 8. Labojko M. 7. Zielinski L. 18. Gajda T. (C) 23. Arak J. 11. Andrzejczak K.	1. Pindroch B. (G) 21. Bednarczyk J. 4. Jaroszynski P. 14. Szabaciuk F. 19. Szczytniewski S. 10. Deja A. 8. Kryeziu E. (C) 22. Orlik K. 11. Tkacz D. 17. Spacil B. 95. Janaszek F.
Substitutes
27. Apolinarski J. 13. Azatsky O. 1. Holewinski A. (G) 15. Kwiatkowski O. 5. Matic M. 10. Michalski K. 19. Sarmiento J. 32. Stefanski P. 9. Wojtyra K.	30. Akhmedov B. 13. Bojanczyk K. 53. Budzilek L. (G) 6. David Abbott G. 20. Malamis P. 27. Masar M. 23. Ogaga D. 88. Osipiuk O. 86. Rafa Santos
Coaches
Tomczyk L.	Rusek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Jaroszynski P. ⚽, Bednarczyk J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Terlecki K. ↓, Michalski K. ↑,
46', Calavera J. ↓, Kwiatkowski O. ↑,
46', Szymusik G. ↓, Matic M. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Arak J. ⚽, Kwiatkowski O. (A),
70', 2 - 1, Arak J. ⚽, Szymanski J. (A),
71', Andrzejczak K. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
71', Arak J. ↓, Wojtyra K. ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Orlik K. ⚽, Kryeziu E. (A),
83', Wojtyra K. 🟨,
85', Krzyzak O. 🟨,
85', Szczytniewski S. ↓, Ogaga D. ↑,
86', Tkacz D. ↓, Bojanczyk K. ↑,
90+3', Deja A. ↓, Osipiuk O. ↑,
90+5', Spacil B. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Polonia Bytom is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Górnik Łęczna is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Polonia Bytom is a strong favorite.

We predict that Polonia Bytom will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Polonia Bytom won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Polonia Bytom won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Bytom
Polish Division 1
22.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
09.11.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Polonia Bytom	2:3 ✺
02.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Znicz Pruszków	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
28.10.25	Goczałkowice Zdrój II - Polonia Bytom	0:7 ✺
Polish Division 1
25.10.25	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWL
- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Division 1
23.11.25	Górnik Łęczna - ŁKS Łódź	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Górnik Łęczna - Legia II	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
09.11.25	Odra Opole - Górnik Łęczna	3:1 ✺
31.10.25	Górnik Łęczna - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Górnik Łęczna	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
19.07.25	Górnik Łęczna - Polonia Bytom	0:3
29.05.13	Polonia Bytom - Górnik Łęczna	0:1

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