Match Info

Division 1 - Round 17

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka (Bytom)

Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Polonia Bytom		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	4.2	Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.35	Watch
	1.67	4.05	4.65
	1.63	4.09	4.73	Watch
	1.66	3.76	4.32
	1.65	3.5	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.65)	3.87 ↑ (3.5)	4.44 ↑ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Bytom
55.5%

Draw
23.8%

Stal Mielec
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.5%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

25.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Bytom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Bytom than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holewinski A. (G) 14. Szymusik G. 30. Krzyzak O. 77. Szymanski J. 22. Calavera J. 8. Labojko M. 29. Terlecki K. 7. Zielinski L. 11. Andrzejczak K. 23. Arak J. 18. Gajda T. (C)	1. Matys M. (G) 20. Szeliga B. 3. Kowalik P. 15. Senger M. 5. Matynia H. 6. Pisek J. 10. Domanski M. (C) 18. Wlazlo P. 32. Gerbowski F. 25. Fucak K. 90. Kruszelnicki P.
Substitutes
27. Apolinarski J. 13. Azatsky O. 4. Bakala M. 15. Kwiatkowski O. 5. Matic M. 35. Mazur K. (G) 19. Sarmiento J. 32. Stefanski P. 9. Wojtyra K.	33. Bukowski A. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 9. Losada M. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 11. Odolak K. 77. Sadlocha K. 23. Sommerfeld K.
Coaches
Tomczyk L.	Mamrot I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Szymusik G. ⚽,
21', 2 - 0, Arak J. ⚽, Gajda T. (A),
23', 2 - 1, Kruszelnicki P. ⚽, Pisek J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 3 - 1, Arak J. ⚽, Gajda T. (A),
58', 4 - 1, Gajda T. ⚽, Calavera J. (A),
66', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
69', Szymusik G. ↓, Matic M. ↑,
69', Andrzejczak K. ↓, Kwiatkowski O. ↑,
69', Calavera J. ↓, Apolinarski J. ↑,
70', Arak J. ↓, Wojtyra K. ↑,
70', Domanski M. ↓, Losada M. ↑,
72', Gerbowski F. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,
77', Labojko M. ↓, Bakala M. ↑,
77', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
82', Fucak K. ↓, Odolak K. ↑,
82', Pisek J. ↓, Niedzwiedz N. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

Polonia Bytom is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stal Mielec's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Polonia Bytom is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Polonia Bytom won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Polonia Bytom won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Bytom
Polish Division 1
09.11.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Polonia Bytom	2:3 ✺
02.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Znicz Pruszków	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
28.10.25	Goczałkowice Zdrój II - Polonia Bytom	0:7 ✺
Polish Division 1
25.10.25	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Polonia Bytom - Odra Opole	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLT
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
08.11.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Stal Mielec - Miedź Legnica	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
03.10.25	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 2
21.11.15	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	4:3
01.08.15	Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec	1:1

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