Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ponferradina		Talavera de la Reina

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.2	5
	1.72	3.3	4.75
	1.7	3.45	5.25
	1.69	3.48	5.25	Watch
	1.7	3	4.8
	1.74	3.33	5.2
	1.66	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.86)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	5 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
53.9%

Draw
27.8%

Talavera de la Reina
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

27.3%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

26%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Talavera de la Reina than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 12. Koke 5. Undabarrena E. 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 14. Fernandez X. 16. Frimpong E. 22. Esquerdo V. 10. Valle B. (C) 18. Vazquez B. 9. Cortes J.	13. Belman (G) 16. Navarro I. 4. Lopez A. 5. Molina S. 3. Roig A. 24. Nordin M. 6. Pitu 14. Molina A. 21. Montero Sergio 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 9. Moreno M.
Substitutes
25. Barredo P. (G) 7. Calderon C. 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 4. Moltenis B. 11. Petkov S. 6. San Emeterio F. 8. Slavy 15. Sousa V.	15. Acosta L. 2. Cuenca D. 7. Di Renzo G. 23. Farrando M. 20. Ferni 1. Gonzalez J. (G) 8. Sanchez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lopez A. ⚽,
20', Pitu 🟨,
28', Molina A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Navarro I. 🟨,
52', Fernandez X. 🟨,
59', Roig A. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
59', Navarro I. ↓, Cuenca D. ↑,
62', Fernandez X. ↓, Slavy ↑,
62', Cortes J. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
66', Nordin M. ↓, Ferni ↑,
75', Slavy 🟨,
80', Esquerdo V. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
83', Montero Sergio ↓, Di Renzo G. ↑,
83', Pitu ↓, Sanchez L. ↑,
83', Lopez A. 🟨,
88', Prieto A. 🟨,
90', Frimpong E. ↓, Jorrin M. ↑,
90', Vazquez B. ↓, Kysil V. ↑,
90+1', Lopez A. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Ponferradina is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Talavera is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ponferradina is considered a favorite.

We predict that Ponferradina will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ponferradina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.98%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ponferradina - Celta de Vigo B	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	CD Guadalajara - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ponferradina - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WTWWW
- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
15.02.26	Talavera de la Reina - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - Pontevedra	0:4 ✺
24.01.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Talavera de la Reina	5:1 ✺
17.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	0:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.02.18	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	2:2
08.10.17	Talavera de la Reina - Ponferradina	2:0

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